The Puck Stops Here

Yesterday, the Canadian Olympic Team was announced. Last week, I made my picks. Like in the US Olympic picks 18 0f the players agree and five are discrepancies. I will try to justify why my picks in the discrepancy cases are better than the players who actually made the Olympic team. The basic reason for the discrepancies is one of philosophy of how to pick a team. Wayne Gretzky, Kevin Lowe and the other people who were involved in the selection process believed that players should be chosen who have experience in previous international play unless there is a compelling reason not to select them (for example Mario Lemieux's irregular heartbeat). Specifically, they decided that it is better to have an experienced checking line - even if the players on it are clearly being outplayed in today's NHL. I believe that at the level of players selected for Team Canada, essentially all players play first line minutes on their NHL teams including checking situations and penalty killing situations and it makes more sense to select a player with more offensive upside when all other things are equal.

My discrepancy picks:

Rod Brind'Amour - Because he was left off of Canada's long list of eligible players it was clear he was not going to make the team. I think Brind'Amour should be considered the Selke favorite. He logs the most ice time of any forward in the NHL this season, often in a checking role and also has some siginificant offensive upside in that he has 29 points in his 29 games so far this year for Carolina. Brind'Amour does have international experience. He played on the 1998 Olympic Team and the 1996 World Cup team, although he has not made the more recent teams. As a checking center he would have been very valuable to Team Canada if they ever considered him.

Patrick Marleau Marleau was named to the 2004 World Cup team though he did not play in any games. He is a four time participant for Canada in the World Championships. He has 39 points in 32 games for the Sharks. His speed makes him a player who would excel on the larger international sized ice. He has really found his game lately having scored 16 points in his last 8 games in San Jose. Marleau would be a valuable forward for the Olympic Team if they selected him.

Bryan McCabe McCabe is the top scoring defenceman in the NHL. He has 40 points in 33 games for Toronto. McCabe has represented Canada in three World Championships, but never in any larger tournaments. He made the second team all star in 2003/04 and should be considered the Norris trophy favorite at this point in the season. Given the promise to continue the obstruction crackdown during the Olympics, a player with McCabe's power play ability would be very useful to Team Canada in the Olympics. He is on the taxi squad but not the main team.

Jason Spezza Spezza has 47 points in his 30 games so far for Ottawa, which ties him for second in scoring among Canadian players. Spezza is in his second complete season in the NHL and has no international experience beyond the World Junior Championships. Anyone capable of playing at that level in the NHL would be able to play at a high level in the Olympics as well. The best forwards in the NHL tend to be centerman, so it makes sense to chose more centers than a normal NHL team might have and play some of them as wingers in the Olympics. This is commonly done by many successful international teams. Its done in the NHL (many wingers on NHL teams were centers in juniors). I don't see why it would be such a problem. I think anyone who scores as well as Spezza has so far this year would be an asset to the Olympic team and it is a mistake to put him on the taxi squad.

Eric Staal Staal is tied with Spezza with 47 points in 33 games for Carolina. His 24 goals lead the entire NHL and yet he didn't make the Olympic team. Staal has no significant international experience. Staal would be a valuable member of the Olympic team, but instead he is on the taxi squad.

Actual Olympic Team discrepancy picks:

Shane Doan Doan will play on the checking line. He played for Team Canada in the 2004 World Cup and has played on three World Championship teams. Doan has 22 points in 34 games so far this year, which is far below the offensive standards of the players I picked but were left off. Seventeen of his 22 points have been on the power play, he has had very little success at even strength. This is troubling, because other players on the Olympic team would likely get the power play ice time and not Doan. Doan has the second worst +/- rating on his Phoenix team (-7). It is troubling that such a player would be taken for the "checking line". I think a player like Patrick Marleau would be able to fill his role. Marleau is a very good penalty killer in San Jose and would be quite capable to fill a spot of a checking line if it was necessary and he has far better offensive upside and so far this year has had better defensive play as well.

Kris Draper Draper is supposed to be the checking center on the Olympic team. Hei s having a bad year in Detroit. He only has seven points in his 34 games so far this year. His -6 +/- rating is the worst on his team. He did play very well in the 2004 World Cup and has experience playing on four different World Championship teams, but is not producing at all this year. Rod Brind'Amour offers everything that Draper offers with a much bigger offensive upside and better defensive play, so I gave him this spot.

Adam Foote Foote is very experienced in international play. He was part of the 1998 and 2002 Olympic teams and the 1996 aned 2004 World Cup teams. He has been a very good defensive stopper in the NHL and on these teams. On a horrid Columbus team, he is showing his age (34). He has 6 points in his 26 games so far. He is slow and appears to have lost a step over the lockout. Although McCabe would not fill the same role on the team as Foote would, McCabe has far more to offer the team at this point and would be a better addition to the team then Foote. Players like Robyn Regehr and Chris Pronger would make good defensive stoppers, they can live without Foote.

Rick Nash Nash has not had much of a start to the season yet. Due to injuries, he has been limited to six games played. During that time he has three points. Nash had a breakthrough season in 2003/04 where he tied for the NHL lead in goals with 41 (but do not forget that he had only 57 points due to his lack of assists). His international experience at the pro level is the 2005 World Championships. I picked Eric Staal in his place because he is also a very good goal scorer who is healthy and appears to be a more well rounded player than Nash who could score more points then nash ever could in a season.

Ryan Smyth Smyth has considereable international experience. He played on the 2002 Olympic team, 2004 World Cup team and seven different World Championship teams. He has 27 points in 29 games so far this year for the Oilers, which is good for fourth on the team. Smyth has been a good player for Team Canada in the past, but he does not have the offensive upside of Jason Spezza. His career best in 70 points in 2000/01. Spezza looks to easily beat that multiple times in his career. Spezza does not have the defensive ability of Smyth, but most of the Team Canada squad has solid defensive skills and I do not see why this is a problem. Spezza has more to offer to the Olympic team then Smyth.

These players are largely the bottom of the roster and will make little difference to the success or failure of Team Canada. However, I believe the best possible Team Canada would be chosen with a different philosophy and would do better.

NOTE: This will likely be my last blog post until after Christmas. I am going away tomorrow and although I will have internet access, I doubt I will want to spend my time in front of a computer, so likely there will be no new posts for a few days.

The New Jersey Devils came into this season with their roster having a total salary that exceeded the salary cap. This was not a problem because Patrik Elias was out with hepatitis so his salary would not count against the salary cap until he was playing. It appears that Elias is now healthy, so New Jersey had to make a move to get below the salary cap. It looks like the original plan was to waive Dan McGillis and send him to the minors to get his salary off their books. McGillis would have been subject to re-entry waivers if he were to be recalled, so likely he would be stuck in the AHL for the remainder of the season. However, plans changed. Coach Larry Robinson had to step down for medical reasons (stress and stress-related headaches). General manager, Lou Lomoreillo took over as an interim coach. Since McGillis had not yet been sent to the minors (though he had cleared waivers), Lamoreillo could still decide he wanted to play him if he wanted. Lamoreillo decided that Vladimir Malakhov was the player he would rather jettison to make the salary cap. Lamoreillo told Malakhov that he was going to waive him and send him to the minors. Malakhov appears to have told him that he would rather retire then go to the minors. So no problem, New Jersey announced Malakhov's retirement.

But it is not so simple, after some second thought (and possibly consultation with Malakhov's agent Paul Theofanous), Malakhov decided that he didn't actually want to retire. So he announced that he wasn't retired. That put New Jersey in a bad place. Since Malakhov had abandoned the team, the Devils decided to suspend Malakhov. According to Theofanous, Malakov merely is on a leave of absence from the Devils.

It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. Can a player announce tell a team he will retire but change his mind before signing paperwork? Will the impotent NHLPA stand up for for Malakhov? This is another problem under the new CBA. Problems such as these are not unexpected since the CBA is a significant change from the past and it is nearly impossible to make a significant change without some unintended consequences.

Today, the 2006 Canadian Olympic hockey team was announced. Here it is:

Goaltenders:

Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo
Marty Turco

Defencemen:

Rob Blake
Adam Foote
Ed Jovanovski
Scott Niedermayer
Chris Pronger
Wade Redden
Robyn Regehr

Forwards:

Todd Bertuzzi
Shane Doan
Kris Draper
Simon Gagne
Dany Heatley
Jarome Iginla
Vincent LeCavalier
Rick Nash
Brad Richards
Joe Sakic
Ryan Smyth
Martin St Louis
Joe Thornton

Eighteen of these players were among my picks for the team and there are five discrepancies. Tomorrow, I will discuss the logic behind my picks and why I did not pick the players who were selected. My selections who were omitted were Bryan McCabe, Rob Brind'Amour, Patrick Marleau, Jason Spezza and Eric Staal. In their places Adam Foote, Shane Doan, Kris Draper, Rick Nash and Ryan Smyth made the team. I knew Brind'Amour would not be selected since he was not on Canada's long list of eligible players. They announced Bryan McCabe, Jason Spezza and Eric Staal would be on the taxi squad. I thought all should make the team. My taxi squad picks of Adam Foote, Rick Nash and Ryan Smyth were all selected to the team.

I think that the philosophy of the Canadian Olympic team selection was to pick the same players who won for them in the past even if there are better players who are outplaying them in the NHL right now. I think this partly comes from tghe misplaced idea that Canada's loss in the 1998 Olympics was largely because Mark Messier was not on the team. Messier had been a great player for Team Canada in the past, but he was clearly past his prime in 1998 and was not nearly as good a player as anyone who was selected to the team (except for Rob Zamuner - who was another selection mistake). It is a mistake to pick some of the veteran Team Canada players in place of players who are clearly outplaying them in the NHL.

I think it is a quite interesting piece of trivia that I agreed with 18 players on the US Olympic team as well as on the Canadian Olympic team.

Yesterday, the US Olympic Team was announced. A few days earlier, I had posted my picks. Eighteen players made both lists. Five players on each list were different. Today, I will justify why I picked those five players and not the ones selected for the US Olympic Team.

My Picks:

Tony Amonte - He has been a long term member of US National teams in international tournaments. He played for the Olympic team in 1998 and 2002. He also played on the 1996 and 2004 World Cup teams. As recently as 1999/2000, Amonte was a point per game player, although those days are over, Amonte still has some scoring ability. So far this year, Amonte has 19 points in 31 games with Calgary. On Calgary he is fitting in well to a hard working role that includes checking and penalty killing. A versatile guy with experience internationally who is capable of scoring but used to other roles on a top defensive team would be a good addition to the Olympic Team.

Brian Leetch - Leetch is arguably the best American born player in NHL history. Leetch has even more international experience then Amonte. He played in the 1991 Canada Cup and the 1988 Olympics as well as the teams that Amonte was on. Leetch is a very good defenseman who is very good at moving the puck. Even at age 37, he plays a big role with his team. He plays almost 26 minutes a game for Boston. He has 14 points in 23 games so far this year. A very good offensive defenceman who can play first line minutes and has plenty of international experience would be a good addition to the Olympic Team.

Paul Mara - Mara has been one of the better American offensive defenceman in the NHL so far this season. He has 21 points in 32 games for Phoenix. He looked as though he was becoming a deserving member of the US teams in international play after a strong performance in the 2005 World Championships. Mara is the top offensive defenceman on the Phoenix Coyotes. He would be a good addition to the Olympic Team.

Paul Martin - Martin is a very reliable young defenceman in his second year in the NHL. He looked like he was going to be a charter member of US national teams. He played in the 2004 World Cup and the 2005 World Championships. Martin has 12 points in 30 games for New Jersey. He is a very good skater and plays a good positional game that translates well to international sized ice. Martin would be a good addition to the Olympic Team.

Michael York - York is a good offensive talent. He has international experience playing with the 2002 US Olympic Team. He has 24 points in 32 games so far this year with the New York Islanders. He took a month or so to get used to a new franchise but has 11 points in 7 games so far in December. He is a potential point per game player. The US Olympic Team could have used a player like him.

The players actually selected for the US Olympic Team in their place:

Jason Blake - Blake has been a late bloomer. In 2001-02 at age 28 he first earned a regular NHL job. He is a hard working grinder with 24 points in 30 games with the Islanders. He has a short track record of NHL play, but seems to have established himself as a roughly 50 point scorer. He played on the 2004 World Cup team. I tend to be skeptical of late bloomers in that they may already be in the decline phase of their careers once they first get to be established NHLers. I gave Amonte his roster spot because he is roughly as good a scorer as Blake today but plays a solid defence on a more defensively oriented team. Amonte has been a much better player than Blake ever will be and has that upside. I think Amonte could still be a solid scorer if that was his role in Calgary.

Jordan Leopold - Leopold looked like he was an up and coming offensive defeceman. He scored 33 points for the Calgary Flames in 2003/04. He is off to a horrible start this year. He only has 4 points in 33 games so far this year. He does have international experience in the 2004 World Cup and three of the last four World Championships. I would rather have somebody who is having a better season this year take his roster spot, so Paul Mara got his spot.

John-Michael Liles - Liles is a second year NHLer who is becoming one of the better American offensive defencemen in the NHL. He did play a minor role for the US World Cup team in 2004 (he only dressed for two games). He also played in the 2005 World Championships. Although I think Liles will be a good player (and thus I put him on the taxi squad. I am not convinced that Liles is as reliable on the international stage as a player with Brian Leetch's experience. I am not sure Liles' defensive play stands up well to international sized ice.

Aaron Miller - Miller is experienced internationally having played in the 2002 Olympics and the 2004 World Cup. He is a very solid defensive player with little offensive upside. At age 34, he appears to be slowing down and he never was particularly fast. He never was the all star defenceman that other aging defencemen on the team like Chris Chelios and Darian Hatcher were. I think Chelios and Hatcher make Miller redundant. Miller doesn't have the speed or the offensive ability of Paul Martin. Martin can play a solid defensive role which would be more valuable to the team then Miller.

Mark Parrish - Parrish is an offensive player with little defensive value. He has 21 points in 28 games so far for the Olympics. Parrish has played on three World Championship teams but until now had never been selected for the more prestigious international play. I see Michael York as a better offensive player so I picked him for Parrish's spot.

In the end, these will be some of the lesser players on the US Olympic team so who holds these spots makes little difference. I think of the omissions from the team, Brian Leetch is the one who will be the biggest loss to the team.

The 2006 US Olympic Hockey Team was announced. Here it is:

Forwards:
Jason Blake
Eric Cole
Craig Conroy
Chris Drury
Brian Gionta
Scott Gomez
Bill Guerin
Mike Knuble
Mike Modano
Mark Parrish
Brian Rolston
Keith Tkachuk
Doug Weight

Defencemen;
Chris Chelios
Derian Hatcher
Jordan Leopold
John-Michael Liles
Aaron Miller
Brian Rafalski
Mathieu Schneider

Goaltenders:
Rick DiPietro
Robert Esche
John Grahame

Here were my picks. There are five discrepancies. I chose Tony Amonte and Michael York at forward instead of Jason Blake and Mark Parrish. I chose Brian Leetch, Paul Mara and Paul Martin on defence instead of Jordan Leopold, John-Michael Liles and Aaron Miller (although I put Liles on the taxi squad).

Tomorrow, after I have some time to think it through, I will attempt to justify why I liked my picks better.

Its a common belief that Roberto Luongo is not having a great year and is not a consensus pick for the Canadian Olympic team. He makes my pick list, but not some blogger's lists. The common belief is that Martin Brodeur may be having a poor year, but he is a lock so the remaining goalies better be guaranteed to be on their game.

Roberto Luongo outplayed Brodeur in 2003/04 and is doing so this year as well. He doesn't show up at the top of the goalie stats in part due to the horrid defence the Florida Panthers have. That said, Luongo is having a pretty good year. Last week, he was named the NHL Player of the Week. He had a great performance Sunday night when he made 53 saves to help his Panthers team defeat the Washington Capitals 3-2. To show just how poor an outing this was for the Panthers, Washington (who had 55 shots against them) is the worst team in the East Conference.

Luongo has a losing record (12-15-4) when goalie stats are manipulated to ensure the majority of NHL goalies have winning records. Luongo's 3.17 goals against average is not very spectacular (it ties him with Dan Cloutier of Vancouver).

Luongo has face more shots than any other goalie in the NHL this year - almost 250 more than Olaf Kolzig (who is 2nd). His saves percentage of .913 is one of the better few in the NHL. Watching his games, it is clear that many of his saves are very hard saves. Florida allows a lot of high quality shots which serve to reduce any goalie's saves percentage.

In the past, I have argued that Luongo is the best player in the NHL although he is not currently in a position where he is able to truly dominate on a regular basis. The case that Luongo is the best player in the NHL is not a clear one, I think Peter Forsberg is the best player when he is healthy (but he isn't healthy often enough). I think that Jaromir Jagr has probably been the best player in the NHL so far this year.

I think Roberto Luongo making the Canadian Olympic team is a no brainer. It makes sense to go with the hot hand in goal when the Olympics come along, but it is quite likely the hot hand will be Roberto Luongo. These prospective Olympic teams without him are giving up a huge asset for Canada.

One of the biggest claims of the NHL is that they are obtaining a record attendance. This makes for great propaganda. The NHL must be doing very well if they are obtaining a record attendance. Viewers of NHL games either in person or on TV watch the games and notice a lot of empty seats in many of the stadiums. How can this be?

The NHL attendance is reported as the number of tickets distributed. Larry Brooks reports that many teams are giving away free tickets to raise their attendance. Florida gives away as many as 4000 seats a night, Chicago gives away 3,100, Boston and Dallas give away 2,700 tickets. That is likely enough to explain the increase in attendance.

The further NHL good news report is that the salary cap will rise next year to somewhere between $40 and $45 million. That says things are going well right? Not necessarily. In 2003-04, the NHL made $2.2 billion. They were initially projecting a $1.8 billion revenue this year (which makes for a loss of $400,000,000) and telling everyone how great it is that their revenue has dropped that much. Now if they succeed at acheiving the $1.8 billion in revenue, that alone is enough raise the cap to the reported level. The CBA assumes that revenue will rise by 5% in revenue from year to year. That alone is enough to raise the salary cap to reported levels. It would give a $40.95 million cap.

So all told, the NHL can be meeting their milestones that their propoganda spins into successes by distributing free tickets and losing $400 million a year over what they made prior to the lockout. And all this is reported as good news. And for the most part, the NHL's media is complicit in this propaganda.

NOTE: The Larry Brooks NY Post article requires registration. Try bugmenot to solve this problem.

The International Ice Hockey Federation has just announced that they will allow three man taxi squads. These are players who will travel to Italy for the Olympics but will not be able to be used except in case of injuries occurring during the Olympics. Since I have just named my picks for the Canadian and American Olympic hockey teams, I thought I would name taxi squads as well.

Traditionally, taxi squads for international tournaments (when they are allowed) have been young players who may gain some experience practising with an international team. That might be the way they are used in 2006, but they could also be used as a list of the best three players who were not named to the Olympic team. I think that the second use might give teams a slightly better (although small) chance at winning Olympic gold, so I will make my picks with that in mind.

My picks for the Canadian taxi squad:
Adam Foote
Rick Nash
Ryan Smyth

My picks for the American taxi squad:
Dustin Brown
Tim Connolly
John-Michael Liles

Since the actual taxi squads can be named as short as 24 hours before the Olympics begin, I expect that ideas on who should make them may change by then.

Here is TSN's story on the announcement of taxi squads.

Yesterday, I posted my picks for the Canadian Olympic Team. Today, I post my picks for the American Olympic Team. These are not who I think will make the team, it is who I think should make the team if I was allowed to select it.

Forwards:
Tony Amonte
Erik Cole
Craig Conroy
Chris Drury
Brian Gionta
Scott Gomez
Bill Guerin
Mike Knuble
Mike Modano
Brian Rolston
Keith Tkachuk
Doug Weight
Michael York

Defencemen:
Chris Chelios
Brian Leetch
Darian Hatcher
Paul Mara
Paul Martin
Brian Rafalski
Mathieu Schneider

Goaltenders:
Rick DiPietro
Robert Esche
John Grahame

This isn't as strong a team as the Americans had in 2002, but it could still finish in the medals if all goes well.

With the deadlines to pick Olympic teams, I will make my picks for the Canadian and American teams. Today, I will select Canada. These picks are NOT the players that I expect to make the team - that becomes a bit of a game of second guessing what I think Wayne Gretzky might do instead of making the best picks I think can be made. These picks are the people that I would select for the Canadian Olympic Team if I was allowed to select it.

Forwards:
Todd Bertuzzi
Rod Brind'Amour *I am aware he was not even on the long list of eligible players*
Simon Gagne
Dany Heatley
Vincent LeCavalier
Jarome Iginla
Patrick Marleau
Brad Richards
Joe Sakic
Jason Spezza
Eric Staal
Martin St Louis
Joe Thornton

Defensemen:
Rob Blake
Ed Jovanovski
Bryan McCabe
Scott Niedermayer
Chris Pronger
Wade Redden
Robyn Regehr

Goaltenders:
Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo
Marty Turco

The hardest part of picking a Team Canada is not finding talented players to fill out the lineup. The problem is that there are too many talented players. There are talented all stars and players with a successful history of playing for Team Canada internationally who are left off this team because of all the available talent. I think this is the best possible team Canada could have. At the same time, I think that the actual Team Canada will be different from this one.

Interestingly, all the consensus picks at battle of Alberta are choices on my team as well.

In October, I wrote about Jaromir Jagr's fast start. I speculated that he likely would not end the season as the NHL's leading scorer, but would likely remain in the top few scorers (if he remains healthy). Its nearly two weeks later and Jagr is still the NHL's top scorer. His 50 points give him a five point lead over the second highest scorer Joe Thornton of San Jose.

I argued that Jagr's lead at the time was due to the fact that he had more games played then players on most other teams and because most of his scoring had occurred on the power play (which I doubted was sustainable as power plays were bound to drop as the obstruction crackdown slowed down). It is true that penalties (and thus power plays) have dropped. Here are stats showing this fact courtesy of James Mirtle.

Jagr is still one of the better power play scorers in the NHL. Currently only Ilya Kovalchuk, Bryan McCabe and Nicklas Lidstrom have more power play points.

In October, I had speculated that by season's end, Jagr might be beaten in the scoring race by some of Jarome Iginla, Markus Naslund, Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa, Peter Forsberg and Martin St Louis. Of the players on that list, Kovalchuk and Peter Forsberg (who was injured) are the closest to Jagr with 42 points - which is eight back. Its a long season, and I am still not sure that Jagr will wind up winning the Art Ross trophy. These players and others like Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Daniel Alfredsson might still wind up winning the scoring title.

Jaromir Jagr's return to the scoring lead for the first time since 2001 is a bit of a suprise, but much stranger things have happened in the world of hockey.

Hot on the heels of Mario Lemieux threatening that the Pittsburgh Penguins might move in 2007, the local governments on the city and county level have made their offer to the Penguins. The Penguins will be given development rights to the Mellon Arena site (where they currently play) if they can come up with $300 million to build a new arena on the site. The Penguins have hoped to make money to build their new arena with the proceeds from a slots license for which they are applying.

Its not clear if this is good enough for Pittsburgh Penguin ownership. They may want to negotiate for a better offer using the leverage that is provided from other markets such as Kansas City that would welcome the Penguins. It is unlikely we have heard the end of this.

Here is the report of this prospective deal from KDKA TV in Pittsburgh.

Ilya Kovalchuk got a slow start this season as he was in Russia during training camp trying to squeeze a bigger contract from the Atlanta Thrashers. Now that he has had a chance to get started in the NHL he has arguably been the best scorer in the NHL so far this year. Since November 1st, Kovalchuk leads the NHL in scoring with 32 points. This is one point more than the top scorer in the NHL Jaromir Jagr has in this time frame. Its only a matter of time before Kovalchuk works his way to the top of the league's scoring leaders. I think Kovalchuk is the best pure scorer in hockey today. He is also young enough that there should be a few more years before he hits his prime. That is a scary thought.

Mario Lemieux is claiming that it is doubtful that the Pittsburgh Penguins will remain in Pittsburgh after 2007 when their current lease with the Mellon Arena ends. These kinds of threats were the kind of thing that we (naively) hoped and were often promised would go away in the cost certainty CBA. In a cost certainty system teams would find it hard to lose money unless they did idiotic things like significantly raise their payroll while playing in arguably the worst arena in the NHL (of course this assumes that they do not have other business reasons for wanting to show a financial loss from their hockey team). So the Pittsburgh Penguins came along and spent a lot of money bringing in free agents like Sergei Gonchar, Zigmund Palffy and Mark Recchi and trading for Jocelyn Thibault. None of these guys are playing at the all star level their salaries command. In fact, Thibault was placed on waivers and cleared them (nobody else in the NHL would take over his contract). Pittsburgh is reporting that they are expecting to lose $7 million this year (those projections have them making the second round in the playoffs - which looks highly unlikley at this point). From this I conclude that Pittsburgh is either extremely ineptly run or have reasons that they want to show a loss on their books this year (and I think the second explanation is far more likely).

In the first place, how certain can we be about the claims made about Pittsburgh's financial situation? They may be often repeated in the media, buit this does not make the claim credible. I think their actual books must look better than these reports. These reports are made to make the people of Pittsburgh more sympathetic to the Penguins. It will make local government more likely to buy a new stadium for the Penguins. Pittsburgh is a good hockey market with a bad stadium. It is well known that no owner will actually spend their own money on a stadium when they can extort it from the local government.

Mario Lemieux is quoted saying:

I think we're really running out of time. We probably ran out of time already. It's been unfortunate that the city and the county haven't been willing to work with us over the last two or three years.

Realistically this means that they want to government to work with them now. There is plenty of time for this as long as they can force the government to play ball.

Pittsburgh is a marketable franchise. They have the most marketable young player in hockey in Sidney Crosby (even if he should not be considered a Calder trophy leader at this point). Kansas City has stepped up and announced that they want the Penguins. Kansas City is not as good a hockey market but they will have a first class arena. Other markets exist like Houston, Winnipeg and Southern Ontario that would make for better markets then Kansas City.

Should Pittsburgh move, I think it will because they failed to extort an arena from the local government and they succeeded in extorting one from a more distant city. This is exactly the same business of hockey crap we had been hearing before the new CBA. Cost certainty may have increased the profit margins of the owners, but it doesn't stop them from wanting even more profits on the back of the local governments.

Here is TSN's story on Lemieux's announcement.

Friday night, Colorado defeated New Jersey 4-3 in a shootout. On two of the goals Pierre Turgeon assisted. These assists were his 1300th and 1301st career points. That is good enough to make Turgeon the 27th highest point scorer of all time. however, Turgeon is the highest scorer of all time that I do not think is worthy of the Hall of Fame.

Here is my list of currently active NHL players who I think are worthy of a spot in the Hall of Fame regardless of what happens in the rest of their careers:

Dave Andreychuk
Ed Belfour
Martin Brodeur
Chris Chelios
Dominik Hasek
Jaromir Jagr
Brian Leetch
Mario Lemieux
Nicklas Lidstrom
Luc Robitaille
Joe Sakic
Brendan Shanahan
Steve Yzerman

Clearly, there must be some player who is the highest point scorer of all time, but is not Hall of Fame worthy. Such a player would likely play in a high scoring era (the beginning of Turgeon's career where he scored his highest point totals were in the highest scoring era ever). Such a player would likely have never been considered the best player at his position and would likely have few if any individual awards. Turgeon is hardly the best centreman of his era (people like Gretzky, Lemieux, Messier, Yzerman and Sakic would all be well ahead of him). Turgeon won the Lady Byng trophy in 1993 and four times made the all star game. Such a player would likely lack defensive or other intangible skills that are not measured in career point totals. This is true for Turgeon when he is compared to most Hall of Famers. Such a player would likely have played a long career in order to get sufficient career point totals. Turgeon currently has 1240 career games played which is good for 53rd all time. So Turgeon is a reasonable candidate for such a player.

If Turgeon continues to score and continues to play well he will move further up the all time scoring list to a point where it will be unreasonable to keep him out of the Hall of Fame. Currently, the next player below Turgeon in career points that I do not consider Hall of Fame worthy is Mark Recchi (who has 1224 points so far and is seven places below Turgeon). Next comes Bernie Nicholls with 1209 points in 38th and Vincent Damphousse with 1205 points in 39th. All these players roughly share the same high scoring era of the late 80s and early 90s for their prime. Turgeon has almost 100 points more than any of them. If Turgeon considerably opens up this lead (or achieves more individual or team success) he would likely become a Hall of Famer. If Turgeon catches up to other players with roughly the same individual success who are Hall of Famers (people like Adam Oates for example) he would likely become good enough for Hall of Fame induction.

There are players who I consider Hall of Famers from the same era as Turgeon who have less points as he does (Brendan Shanahan for example has 1178 career points), but they offer credentials that Turgeon doesn't (Shanahan for example has twice made the First Team All Star - so he has been considered the best player in his position). This merely shows that points are not the ultimate measure of how good a player is.

This argument is quite similar to Curtis Joseph and his career win total, except that points are a better measure of good players then goalie wins are. I imagine that Turgeon could continue his career and establish Hall of Fame credentials, but he has not done so yet. He has been resurgent since he joined the Colorado Avalanche. If he can continue at this level for another year or two there is a good chance Turgeon will make it, but he is not yet there.

A couple days ago James Mirtle wrote about which teams were doing the best on faceoffs. In the comments Jes Golbez responded that faceoffs are an overrated stat and there is little correlation between faceoff success and winning hockey games. This statement is true, but contradicts conventional wisdom about hockey.

Conventional wisdom argues that hockey is a game of puck possession. Faceoffs are one way that teams gain possession of the puck and are thus important. We have all seen an important faceoff late in the game (which rarely leads to a goal) and that reinforces the idea.

If we look at the statistics James Mirtle quotes 29 of 30 teams are well within 4% of the 50% success rate which is average. Four percent is one in 25 faceoffs. The difference between a good faceoff team and an average one is winning one in 25 extra faceoffs. The difference between a bad faceoff team and an average one is losing less than one in 25 extra faceoffs. That is not very much at all. The lone exception to that is the Edmonton Oilers who have a 56.2% faceoff success rate. The difference between the best team on faceoffs (and the one outlying point) is winning slightly over one in sixteen extra faceoffs. This is why there is little correlation between faceoff wins and winning hockey games. There is little difference between the faceoff success rate of the best and worst teams in the league.

Hockey is a game of puck possession. Each team has possession of the puck a couple hundred times in a game. If they are a good faceoff team, they might get around three extra puck possessions. These extra puck possessions are far more easily made up or lost by players turning over the puck or taking it away from the opposition. Far more difference in puck possessions come from other facets of the game then from faceoff wins and losses. So faceoff success is more or less lost in the rest of the game. Since most facets of the rest of the game are hard to quantify in any meaningful sabermetric method, there is little reason to overanalyze small differences in faceoff success.

If we look further at the faceoff stats, we find that the teams that are good on faceoffs are a further distance from average then the teams that are bad on faceoffs. The worst teams on faceoffs are the Pittsburgh Penguins and the New York Islanders. They still win 47.2% of their faceoffs (this is only 2.8% less than half). The best three teams are all quite a bit better than 2.8% above average. Edmonton has a 56.2% faceoff success rate. Boston has a 53.7% success rate and Nashville has a 53.4% success rate. I think this is because there are only a handful of players who are very good on faceoffs (by very good I mean they win 60% or more of their faceoffs - which means they would still lose 2 out of 5 faceoffs). Most players are average or slightly below average on faceoffs. Most teams faceoff success rate is a combination of several players who are roughly average faceoff men. Thus most teams are roughly average. The few teams with a very good faceoff player or two are the furthest from average.

When I say there are only a handful of players who are very good on faceoffs (using my definition of 60% success rate or better) this corresponds to only three players with any significant number of faceoffs taken. They are Jarret Stoll of Edmonton, Yanic Perreault of Nashville and Rod Brind'Amour of Carolina. These three players play on the four best faceoff teams (Carolina is fourth). Boston's success is due largely to two players Patrice Bergeron and Travis Green. They are one of only three teams (Edmonton - Stoll and Mike Peca and Nashville - Perreault and Greg Johnson are the other two) with two players in the top twenty faceoff men. In fact, Boston nearly has a third in Dave Scatchard who they traded to Phoenix in mid-November.

While it is a good thing to have a player or two who is very good on faceoffs, as it will earn your team a few more puck possessions, I would not be too concerned about it. You could just as easily find players who do not giveaway the puck or frequently take the puck from the opposition to more than make up this difference.

Faceoffs are not a particularly important statistic in the NHL because nearly every team is almost average. Even the best and worst teams are not that far from average. If we were to ever have a team that wins 80 or 90% of their faceoffs or loses all but 10 or 20% of their faceoffs, there would likely be a strong correlation between this success or failure and the team's success or failure, but it will be a very weak correlation at best when the difference between exceptional and average is roughly one faceoff in 25.

Hall of Famer Mario Lemieux has been admitted to hospital because of an irregular heartbeat. He will miss Pittsburgh's game Thursday night vs. Minnesota as a result. Lemieux missed the last two Penguins games due to "the stomach flu". It is unknown if that is related to the irregular heart rate.

Lemieux is likely nearing the end of his career. He has shown signs of decline this season. Lemieux has 21 points in 25 games played so far this season. His -17 +/- rating is second worst in the NHL (only teammate Mark Recchi is worse). If this problem is serious it may lead to Lemieux's retirement. At the very least, it may lead to Lemieux missing the Olympics in February.

TSN's story on this topic is here.

NOTE: Mario Lemieux was discharged from hospital after staying overnight. He has been diagnosed with atrial fibrillation which can be treated with medication and will not likely interupt his career. Lemieux will "take it easy" for 7 to 10 days and if all goes well should then be able to rejoin his team.

While I claim Bryan McCabe has been the best defenceman this season. It is in spite of the fact that he has inflated offensive totals in part due to increased power play time. McCabe leads the NHL with 22 power play points. He has 35 total points this year. This leaves him 10 points at even strength and three more short handed points.

McCabe is hardly the worst example of a defender with a significant point total that is almost completely power play points. many defenders are doing it. Many of whom had scored well at even strength in previous seasons. Both Nicklas Lidstrom of the Detroit Red Wings and Paul Mara of the Phoenix Coyotes have 20 points this year, but they have only four at even strength and 16 on the power play. McCabe's usual linemate Tomas Kaberle is another player who feasts on the power play and rarely scores otherwise. He has 21 points with 16 on the power play.

Although the best examples of the phenomenon are defencemen, there are forwards in the group. For example, Shane Doan of the Phoenix Coyotes has 19 points, 14 of which were scored on the power play.

I worry about teams and players who are dependant upon power plays. When the stretch run comes and the playoffs follow and games get more and more important, I think penalties will drop as referees will put away their whistle and let the teams settle games on the ice. These teams and players will have less power play opportunities and their success will drop.

Earlier this season, I wrote about Bryan McCabe getting off to a fast start. I was skeptical about whether or not he could keep it up, especially since most of his offensive success has been on the power play. He has managed to keep this up. McCabe still leads the NHL in power play points with 22 (he is tied for the lead with Ilya Kovalchuk of the Atlanta Thrashers). McCabe currently has 35 points in 28 games. He is on pace for 102 points which is the highest output for an NHL defenceman since Brian Leetch accomplished 102 points in 1991/92. This is an outstanding offensive accomplishment.

I had earlier picked Wade Redden of the Ottawa Senators as the best defenceman in the NHL so far this year, but he has missed his last several games due to a knee injury. Therefore, it is unreasonable to continue to claim he has been the best defenceman so far this season. I think Bryan McCabe has been the best defender so far this season.

McCabe is well on the way to a breakthrough season. He made the second team all star in 2003/04 (which suprised many people) and is improving on that performance this season. There is still contreversy as to whether or not McCabe should make the Canadian Olympic team. Based on his performance so far, its amazing that his position is not guaranteed. Why wouldn't you pick the player who is on pace to win a Norris trophy who made the second team all star in his last NHL season?

I made predictions at the beginning of the season, but certainly would not have predicted that in early December Josef Stumpel of the Florida Panthers and Sergei Fedorov (who was traded to Columbus) have combined for zero goals.

I'm sure there are a few people very upset with these hockey pool killers.

In the NHL so far this year, the Ottawa Senators have been very dominant. I am not the only one who has noticed this, James Mirtle asks the question as to whether they are the best team ever (I would answer no way let them win a few Stanley Cups in a row before we even consider that - and their staying together long enough to accomplish that is highly unlikely with the new CBA). With all the success Ottawa has had so far, they have not been the most dominant pro team in their league in North America.

That honor goes to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins of the AHL. This is the Pittsburgh Penguins minor league team. So far this season Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has not lost at all in regulation. They have 19 wins and 2 overtime losses.

Whenever you have a good AHL team with a not so good NHL team, the good AHL team is likely to get broken up to help the NHL squad. This team is no exception. Michel Ouellet, Erik Christensen and Matt Hussey are in the NHL right now (they are 3 of the 4 top scorers so far this year in W-B/S leaving only Tomas Surovy behind). Their top defenceman Ryan Whitney is also in the NHL. Most importantly, their MVP (the best player in the AHL so far this year) Marc-Andre Fleury is also in the NHL.

More than likely, this infusion of talent (especially in goal) will help the Pittsburgh Penguins to improve, but they have a long way to go to be a respectable playoff team.

With the new obstruction crackdown, it is reasonable to have wondered how the Lady Byng race for most gentlemanly player (player who best combines gentlemanly conduct and hockey skills) would be impacted. Would players who had in the past been candidates drop out of the race if they drew more penalties in the new rule interpretation?

One man has jumped out to the front as the clear Lady Byng leader. That man is Jason Spezza of the Ottawa Senators. Going into tonight's play, Spezza led the NHL in scoring with 41 points and he only has two penalty minutes. In fact there is no position player in the NHL with more ice time then Spezza who has two or less penalty minutes (Spezza has played 459.5 minutes PJ Axelsson of Boston is second with 454 minutes and only two PIMs - Axelsson has four more games played).

The dominant Ottawa Senators have several players I have picked as leaders for awards. Dominik Hasek is my Vezina pick and I had picked Wade Redden as the Norris leader but with his injury I no longer stand by that pick. I suppose Spezza would win the Art Ross trophy as NHL scoring leader as well.

Jason Spezza is having a real breakthrough season.

I believe that the only meaningful way to answer the question of who the worst player in the NHL at a given time is to include only players who are playing regularly on their team. In all likelihood, there are in fact worse players around but they do not get a chance to play a regular shift. In order to get a chance to play regularly, usually the player is an established NHLer who is reasonably expected to start playing better.

It was in this mindset, that I picked Shawn McEachern of the Boston Bruins and then later when I thought McEachern picked up his game a bit I picked Wade Belak of the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now that McEachern has cleared waivers and Belak has been out with injury (he has only played one game since November 6th), it is time for a new pick.

My pick is Steven Goertzen of the Columbus Blue Jackets. I am a bit suprised that a player like him could have enough ice time to even qualify for such a dishonor. With the week Blue Jackets this year, Goertzen has scored zero points in 19 games. He is a -8 with 12 shots on goa from right wing. I suppose his "value" to the Blue Jackets is as a goon since he does have 24 penalty minutes. Goertzen is a rookie who was Columbus's seventh round draft pick in 2002. Last year he split his time between the AHL and ECHL. In the AHL he scored a huge nine points in 57 games. In the ECHL he scored 3 points in eleven games. He did manage 100 penalty minutes in the AHL last year. In fact, he did not make the Blue Jackets immediately out of training camp. He started the year with the Syracuse Crunch of the AHL. In three games he didn't score at all.

So why is he in the NHL? Can't Columbus find somebody with more of an upside to play in his spot?

NOTE: One could argue that Doug MacLean and the Columbus Blue Jackets have reached the same conclusion that I have since they sent Goertzen to the minors the day after I wrote this post. Although, most likely the move was made because of a scheduling fluke. Columbus does not play for a week. So they sent Goertzen down to save money. I bet they call him back up for their next game.