The Puck Stops Here

For the last few years the Dallas Stars have been a solid playoff team, but not one good enough to be considered a serious Stanley Cup contender. In a good year, if they draw weaker opponents, they might win a round or two in the playoffs. In a bad year, they might get ousted in the first round. This year looked like it would continue the pattern. Although they had a hot streak down the stretch, they cooled off in time for the playoffs. When they drew the defending Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks in the first round, it looked like a good bet that they Dallas Stars would be eliminated in the first round.

Surprisingly, Dallas eliminated the Ducks in six games. They moved on to play the San Jose Sharks. San Jose is the Pacific Division champs and is also favored to defeat Dallas. However, two games into this series Dallas leads 2-0. Both of their wins came on the road in San Jose. This is setting Dallas up to be the surprise Cinderella team of the 2008 playoffs.

Dallas's success comes from good play on the part of goaltender Marty Turco. Turco is one of the NHL's better goalies. He is a very good goaltender, but a step below the level of Vezina candidate. There is a ridiculous idea that he cannot win in the playoffs, largely because he has never been the goalie for a deep run in the playoffs, but this is largely due to the fact his team has not been a top contender. Turco has consistently played well in the playoffs over the years. Blaming him for Dallas's lack of playoff runs is a simplistic misguided idea. Turco is a very good goalie and he has played well in the playoffs this year.

Dallas's success also comes from a deep defence. They have performed surprisingly well when Sergei Zubov has been out with injury. Zubov played last night in his first playoff game this year and may take a while to get into mid-season form (in the playoffs he does not have the luxury of taking this time). With Zubov out, Stephane Robidas and Mattias Norstrom have played very well. Dallas has had a strong defence without Zubov and it should get better with his return. The potential issue is the play of Robidas and Norstrom. They are both playing their best hockey of the season. Is it reasonable to expect they can keep it up? If they cannot, Zubov and Philippe Boucher, who are both returning from injury might be able to relieve some pressure from them.

Their success is also due to solid play from their key offensive players. Mike Ribiero is currently tied for the playoff lead in assists with eight and second in playoff points with 11. Brendan Morrow, Brad Richards and Mike Modano are all also performing at point per game rate or better.

This is what a hot team looks like. Several players are performing at higher levels than they did throughout most of the season. Everything seems to be clicking. As long as that momentum can be maintained, Dallas should surprise some more people and will be very hard to eliminate. The problem is that it is hard to rely on players who are performing above expected levels. Given time, they will likely revert to expectation. If this happens, Dallas is likely overmatched by their playoff opponent.

The playoffs are a long tournament. It takes almost two months of playoffs to win the Stanley Cup. In order to be the winner, a team must stay hot the whole time. If they cool off they will quickly find themselves facing elimination. Right now, Dallas is hot. They have been a streaky team this season. If the hot streak continues, Dallas will be the Cinderella team of the 2008 playoffs. However, all too often things fall apart for a Cinderella team. The players playing above their norms revert back to expected levels. That leaves Cinderella lying in a field with a pumpkin and some mice wondering what went wrong.