Tuesday, February 19, 2008
Dallas Is Hot
We are starting to hit the stretch run in the NHL season. Now is the time to start to get hot. The teams that looked hot in October, November and December have been forgotten. Right now, the hottest team in the NHL is the Dallas Stars. They have won their last two games, nine of their last ten games and twelve of their last fifteen. This run dates back into mid-January.
The Dallas Stars sit atop the Pacific Division, holding off the San Jose Sharks and the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks who have added Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne.
What is most amazing is that this Dallas run has been a team effort. Sergei Zubov, arguably their best player, has been injured throughout it. The Stars have not had any league leading performances during their run. Sure Mike Ribiero has scored, but many players on other teams have scored more. Sure Marty Turco has played well in net, but other goaltenders on other teams have played better.
The Dallas Stars have played well lately. Can they keep this up long enough to last until the playoffs? My guess is that their peak is still a bit too early, but stranger things have happened.
The Dallas Stars sit atop the Pacific Division, holding off the San Jose Sharks and the Stanley Cup champion Anaheim Ducks who have added Scott Niedermayer and Teemu Selanne.
What is most amazing is that this Dallas run has been a team effort. Sergei Zubov, arguably their best player, has been injured throughout it. The Stars have not had any league leading performances during their run. Sure Mike Ribiero has scored, but many players on other teams have scored more. Sure Marty Turco has played well in net, but other goaltenders on other teams have played better.
The Dallas Stars have played well lately. Can they keep this up long enough to last until the playoffs? My guess is that their peak is still a bit too early, but stranger things have happened.
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No. Coach of the year. Jacques Lemaire.
Your team getting hot in February does not make one coach of the year.
Your team getting hot in February does not make one coach of the year.
I'm about as far as one can be from being a Stars fan, but Dallas, while incredibly hot right now, have been playing well above expectations for most of the season.
On October 14, the team was 7-7-4, but then proceeded to go on a six game winning streak. Two weeks later they were in the midst of winning 8 of 9. Their record in November was 8-4-2, in December it was 10-4. They faltered a bit to start the year, but their latest 12 wins in 15 games streak is more in line with their play over the course of the season than their early January record of 2-5-1.
Most people predicted this team to be a middle-of-the road team, one that would be sound defensively (which has proven to be correct, they're 4th out of 30 in goals against), but would have a helluva time scoring goals, which has proven to be incorrect as they are 5th out of 30 in goals for. They have a top-10 powerplay and the best PK% in the league. Their 79 points is second-best in the league, a full six ahead of the four teams tied for third.
The Stars have positioned themselves to be in the best position possible to win their division, and while their 80% winning percentage of late is sure to dip a bit, they haven't shown any signs of slowing down considerably.
Tippett has got his team playing their defense-first system well above expectations. He has helped Mike Ribeiro become a top-flight centreman and is getting quality secondary scoring from a lot of less-than-household names. One of the league's best defensive forwards has missed more than half of the Stars' games and, as you mention, going 11-3 without the team's best player in Zubov. As such, Dave Tippett will likely garner considerable coach of the year interest, and I think it's warranted. He won't necessarily win, but I've yet to see any credible evidence that Ted Nolan or Ken Hitchcock, while putting up commendable efforts, are "better" coaches this year.
On October 14, the team was 7-7-4, but then proceeded to go on a six game winning streak. Two weeks later they were in the midst of winning 8 of 9. Their record in November was 8-4-2, in December it was 10-4. They faltered a bit to start the year, but their latest 12 wins in 15 games streak is more in line with their play over the course of the season than their early January record of 2-5-1.
Most people predicted this team to be a middle-of-the road team, one that would be sound defensively (which has proven to be correct, they're 4th out of 30 in goals against), but would have a helluva time scoring goals, which has proven to be incorrect as they are 5th out of 30 in goals for. They have a top-10 powerplay and the best PK% in the league. Their 79 points is second-best in the league, a full six ahead of the four teams tied for third.
The Stars have positioned themselves to be in the best position possible to win their division, and while their 80% winning percentage of late is sure to dip a bit, they haven't shown any signs of slowing down considerably.
Tippett has got his team playing their defense-first system well above expectations. He has helped Mike Ribeiro become a top-flight centreman and is getting quality secondary scoring from a lot of less-than-household names. One of the league's best defensive forwards has missed more than half of the Stars' games and, as you mention, going 11-3 without the team's best player in Zubov. As such, Dave Tippett will likely garner considerable coach of the year interest, and I think it's warranted. He won't necessarily win, but I've yet to see any credible evidence that Ted Nolan or Ken Hitchcock, while putting up commendable efforts, are "better" coaches this year.
# posted by 
: February 19, 2008 4:07 PM
: February 19, 2008 4:07 PM
I agree, but I will disclose that I am primarily a Dallas Stars fan. Tippett will get some of the Adams discussion, but he won't win it unless Dallas somehow manages to get the President's Trophy.
Even though Detroit right now is as cold as Dallas is hot, the Wings lead is probably just too much to overcome.
Even though Detroit right now is as cold as Dallas is hot, the Wings lead is probably just too much to overcome.
October: 5-5-2
November: 8-4-2
December: 10-4-0
January: 6-7-1
February: 8-1-0
Dallas had a pretty good November and a very good December to go with their outstanding February so to conclude that their record is only based on a hot January is an invalid conclusion.
How you can automatically dismiss Tippett and give coach of the year to Lemaire is beyond me. Each teams records are more or less the same (factoring in games played differences) and they have more or less identical goals per game average and Dallas has a better goals against per game average and gives up far fewer shots against.
November: 8-4-2
December: 10-4-0
January: 6-7-1
February: 8-1-0
Dallas had a pretty good November and a very good December to go with their outstanding February so to conclude that their record is only based on a hot January is an invalid conclusion.
How you can automatically dismiss Tippett and give coach of the year to Lemaire is beyond me. Each teams records are more or less the same (factoring in games played differences) and they have more or less identical goals per game average and Dallas has a better goals against per game average and gives up far fewer shots against.
# posted by : February 19, 2008 10:05 PM
: February 19, 2008 10:05 PM
How you can automatically dismiss Tippett and give coach of the year to Lemaire is beyond me. Each teams records are more or less the same (factoring in games played differences) and they have more or less identical goals per game average and Dallas has a better goals against per game average and gives up far fewer shots against.
It is not a matter of "automatically dismissing" Tippett.
Coach of the year is often given by the NHL writers as coach of the most improved team (or a team that exceeds expectation) but that is a mistake. It leads to winners like Alain Vigneault who won last year by being in the right place at the right time (he was coach of the team who added Luongo). This year Vigneazlt is no coach of the year candidate. Why? The team hasn't improved again even though his coaching is no worse then last year.
I try to pick coach of the year as the coach who has the biggest impact on his team's success. This is clearly subjective because there is no way to statistically analyze things.
Merely looking at Minnesota it is easy to see that Lemaire's syste is a big part of their success. It always has been. Without Lemaire they would not be the same team. I don't see any sign of Tippett doing anything on that level for Dallas. Looking at the record of the team will never show anything like that, so your attempt at analysis using that as a starting point is most likely a lost cause.
It is not a matter of "automatically dismissing" Tippett.
Coach of the year is often given by the NHL writers as coach of the most improved team (or a team that exceeds expectation) but that is a mistake. It leads to winners like Alain Vigneault who won last year by being in the right place at the right time (he was coach of the team who added Luongo). This year Vigneazlt is no coach of the year candidate. Why? The team hasn't improved again even though his coaching is no worse then last year.
I try to pick coach of the year as the coach who has the biggest impact on his team's success. This is clearly subjective because there is no way to statistically analyze things.
Merely looking at Minnesota it is easy to see that Lemaire's syste is a big part of their success. It always has been. Without Lemaire they would not be the same team. I don't see any sign of Tippett doing anything on that level for Dallas. Looking at the record of the team will never show anything like that, so your attempt at analysis using that as a starting point is most likely a lost cause.
Coach of the year is often given by the NHL writers as coach of the most improved team (or a team that exceeds expectation) but that is a mistake. It leads to winners like Alain Vigneault who won last year by being in the right place at the right time (he was coach of the team who added Luongo).
I don't disagree, but I don't think that applies to Tippett.
Merely looking at Minnesota it is easy to see that Lemaire's syste is a big part of their success.
Fair enough, but Lemaire's style is a defense first system and yet Dallas has the better defensive record (fewer goals and shots allowed).
Though you don't explicitly say it you indirectly apply that Dallas's success has more to do with the talent level of the players than the system employed by the coach where as Minnesota's success has more to do with the system employed by the coach rather than the talent level of the players. I don't really buy into that argument mostly because I don't believe Dallas's talent level is equal to that of the Wild.
One area where I do believe coaches can have an impact is in special teams and Dallas ranks 6th in PP% and first in PK% where as Minnesota is 8th and 7th respectively. Guy Carboneau deserves some recognition here for what he has done with Montreal's PP over the past couple seasons.
I don't want to discount what Lemaire because clearly he is a good coach and definitely a candidate for coach of the year but I just don't see how he is any more deserving than Tippett or Mike Babcock or Guy Carboneau. If Tippett were coaching in more of a hockey media market he would get far more recognition as being a very good coach than he does. I never hear his name come up in coach of the year discussions but he certainly deserves to be mentioned.
I don't disagree, but I don't think that applies to Tippett.
Merely looking at Minnesota it is easy to see that Lemaire's syste is a big part of their success.
Fair enough, but Lemaire's style is a defense first system and yet Dallas has the better defensive record (fewer goals and shots allowed).
Though you don't explicitly say it you indirectly apply that Dallas's success has more to do with the talent level of the players than the system employed by the coach where as Minnesota's success has more to do with the system employed by the coach rather than the talent level of the players. I don't really buy into that argument mostly because I don't believe Dallas's talent level is equal to that of the Wild.
One area where I do believe coaches can have an impact is in special teams and Dallas ranks 6th in PP% and first in PK% where as Minnesota is 8th and 7th respectively. Guy Carboneau deserves some recognition here for what he has done with Montreal's PP over the past couple seasons.
I don't want to discount what Lemaire because clearly he is a good coach and definitely a candidate for coach of the year but I just don't see how he is any more deserving than Tippett or Mike Babcock or Guy Carboneau. If Tippett were coaching in more of a hockey media market he would get far more recognition as being a very good coach than he does. I never hear his name come up in coach of the year discussions but he certainly deserves to be mentioned.
# posted by : February 20, 2008 1:49 AM
: February 20, 2008 1:49 AM
The idea that Dave Tippett should be a candidate for coach of the year is a reasonable one (especially given the fact the media has a poor record at actually picking a worthy coach of the year).
The reason I dismissed you outright is that we have been down this road before.
This is the post that best addresses the issue, but I have written about the coach of the year issue several times and you have commented about Dave Tippett most of those times. From my point of view nothing has changed in the meantime.
Tippett is a solid coach. Better exist. That's my position. I am very skeptical about the idea of statistics like power play numbers to show the value of the coach. Decoupling the coach from the players is hard. That is why the coach of the year is often a poor selection. Its way easier to look at the standings and say gee Montreal is 2nd in the east. I pegged em to miss the playoffs. The difference must be good coaching (because it cannot be that I was wrong assessing how good the Habs players are). That is as close as I can come up with to follow the logic pattern of the coach of the year selections. By that pattern, Tippett could very well see himself a nominee if Dallas keeps winning. I don't think he is the best coach in the league. I don't think he belongs in with the elite 3 or 4 best coaches in the league, but he is a good coach.
I think our differences in opinion come from the fact its hard (impossible) to objectively rate coaches from any statistical method. I have seen enough of Tippett to see he is clearly a pretty good coach. I havent seen anything significant to make me think he is any better than just pretty good.
The reason I dismissed you outright is that we have been down this road before.
This is the post that best addresses the issue, but I have written about the coach of the year issue several times and you have commented about Dave Tippett most of those times. From my point of view nothing has changed in the meantime.
Tippett is a solid coach. Better exist. That's my position. I am very skeptical about the idea of statistics like power play numbers to show the value of the coach. Decoupling the coach from the players is hard. That is why the coach of the year is often a poor selection. Its way easier to look at the standings and say gee Montreal is 2nd in the east. I pegged em to miss the playoffs. The difference must be good coaching (because it cannot be that I was wrong assessing how good the Habs players are). That is as close as I can come up with to follow the logic pattern of the coach of the year selections. By that pattern, Tippett could very well see himself a nominee if Dallas keeps winning. I don't think he is the best coach in the league. I don't think he belongs in with the elite 3 or 4 best coaches in the league, but he is a good coach.
I think our differences in opinion come from the fact its hard (impossible) to objectively rate coaches from any statistical method. I have seen enough of Tippett to see he is clearly a pretty good coach. I havent seen anything significant to make me think he is any better than just pretty good.
1) Makes one wonder IF a team that is "Hot" or "Cold" going into the post season equates into playoff success?
2) Empirically it would seem so, but sports seldom follow a pattern. (Which is why its inane to bet on sports!)
2) Empirically it would seem so, but sports seldom follow a pattern. (Which is why its inane to bet on sports!)
To be frank, your original post discussing Dave Tippett's coaching in mid-December doesn't actually spend much time talking about his coaching. You discuss the players a bit, the front-end scoring and mention Marty Turco being a very good goalie, but there's not much there that talks about his coaching style and the team's response to it in comparison to Lemaire or Hitchcock.
# posted by : February 20, 2008 12:28 PM
: February 20, 2008 12:28 PM
Faux, I think you could do a fairly reasonable statistical analysis of your question. Take each playoff team's winning percentage over the last (x) weeks of the regular season, where x is something like five or maybe six. Then examine for possible correlatation with the number of playoff games won.
I would imagine you would find a moderately strong correlation. But it could also just be the taint of "the common wisdom" that says it's always best to be hot going into the playoffs.
I would imagine you would find a moderately strong correlation. But it could also just be the taint of "the common wisdom" that says it's always best to be hot going into the playoffs.
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