The Puck Stops Here: How Do We Value WHA Years Sabermetrically?

Saturday, September 16, 2006

How Do We Value WHA Years Sabermetrically?

In writing a sabermetrics and hockey post on the top 10 adjusted goal scoring careers as calculated by a a normalization method proposed by the hockey outsider (Peter Albert), we come across an interesting situation. The top three adjusted goal scorers of all time Gordie Howe, Bobby Hull and Wayne Gretzky all spent time in the WHA. How best should that time be rated? The treatment of this question would change the top three order (namely it could rank Wayne Gretzky in 2nd ahead of Bobby Hull instead of vice versa).

There are three methods that I have seen to address this question in the work of others and I consider none of them satisfactory.

In his sabermetric work, Pnep (Roman Nepomnyaschev) merely ignores all seasons that are not in the NHL. That is tantamount to throwing out good data.

In his sabermetric work, Daryl Shilling improves slightly on Pnep by treating non-NHL years as years for which we do not have sufficient statistical information (undocumented seasons). He assumes that each year in the WHA would be equivalent to an average NHL year for the given player (which is sometimes blatantly wrong, a 39 year old Hull in the WHA was clearly playing below his average career level. These seasons are documented. The problem is how best to interpret that information.

The hockey outsider tries another approach. He treats the WHA as any other pro league and a season in the WHA is equal to a season in the NHL - after it is normalized for goal scoring rate and games played. This leads to interesting but clearly wrong results. Does anyone really believe that Real Cloutier's 75 goal season in the WHA in 1978/79 was the 18th best goal scoring year ever? I don't see how it can be considered better than Jarome Iginla's 52 goal season in 2001/02 (or many other years it rates higher than) in the NHL during an era when scoring was much lower, despite the fact it rates higher on the hockey outsider list.

The problem is the quality of opposition is different. The WHA, though it had some good players, was inferior to the NHL. In order to meaningfully compare seasons from different eras we need to take into account the quality of league play. There is no perfect method to do this. In fact, there is probably no adequate method to do this. Nevertheless, I will look at a few possible methods and their strengths and pitfalls in the future.

# posted by The Puck Stops Here : 11:37 AM

Comments:

The Desjardins' numbers are interesting but flawed imo. The WHA of 72-73 was not strong but by 1975-76 the level of play was much improved. Again by 78-79 it was weakened.

I'd say that WHA stats should range anywhere from 50%-75% of NHL stats but no more. Better than today's AHL but not by leaps and bounds.

Plus of course the NHL 72-79 was weakened too.

# posted by

Anonymous : September 16, 2006 2:39 PM

I use Players "Best Seasons" to measure quality of opposition.

Example:

Maurice Richard "HHOF Monitor" PTS by seasons:

1942-43 -- 6,00
1943-44 -- 152,00
1944-45 -- 427,50
1945-46 -- 196,50
1946-47 -- 511,50
1947-48 -- 134,00
1948-49 -- 113,00
1949-50 -- 233,50
1950-51 -- 515,00
1951-52 -- 128,00
1952-53 -- 182,50
1953-54 -- 332,00
1954-55 -- 327,00
1955-56 -- 284,50
1956-57 -- 258,00
1957-58 -- 217,00
1958-59 -- 91,00
1959-60 -- 96,00

Maurice Richard "Best Season" is 1950-51.

I calculate "Best Seasons" to all NHL players and make this chart:

NHL Season -- # of "Best Seasons" -- Players Played -- % "Best Seasons"
==============================
1917-18 -- 23 -- 45 -- 51,00%
1918-19 -- 9 -- 36 -- 25,00%
1919-20 -- 21 -- 49 -- 43,00%
1920-21 -- 9 -- 48 -- 19,00%
1921-22 -- 8 -- 47 -- 17,00%
1922-23 -- 7 -- 44 -- 16,00%
1923-24 -- 13 -- 54 -- 24,00%
1924-25 -- 30 -- 83 -- 36,00%
1925-26 -- 36 -- 107 -- 34,00%
1926-27 -- 38 -- 150 -- 25,00%
1927-28 -- 32 -- 148 -- 22,00%
1928-29 -- 27 -- 147 -- 18,00%
1929-30 -- 33 -- 159 -- 21,00%
1930-31 -- 42 -- 183 -- 23,00%
1931-32 -- 28 -- 151 -- 19,00%
1932-33 -- 27 -- 171 -- 16,00%
1933-34 -- 36 -- 175 -- 21,00%
1934-35 -- 28 -- 178 -- 16,00%
1935-36 -- 24 -- 170 -- 14,00%
1936-37 -- 30 -- 176 -- 17,00%
1937-38 -- 34 -- 166 -- 20,00%
1938-39 -- 17 -- 155 -- 11,00%
1939-40 -- 26 -- 149 -- 17,00%
1940-41 -- 38 -- 151 -- 25,00%
1941-42 -- 38 -- 160 -- 24,00%
1942-43 -- 44 -- 143 -- 31,00%
1943-44 -- 71 -- 151 -- 47,00%
1944-45 -- 49 -- 132 -- 37,00%
1945-46 -- 23 -- 140 -- 16,00%
1946-47 -- 33 -- 150 -- 22,00%
1947-48 -- 31 -- 153 -- 20,00%
1948-49 -- 37 -- 147 -- 25,00%
1949-50 -- 53 -- 170 -- 31,00%
1950-51 -- 34 -- 170 -- 20,00%
1951-52 -- 22 -- 156 -- 14,00%
1952-53 -- 41 -- 161 -- 25,00%
1953-54 -- 21 -- 154 -- 14,00%
1954-55 -- 30 -- 157 -- 19,00%
1955-56 -- 26 -- 147 -- 18,00%
1956-57 -- 25 -- 150 -- 17,00%
1957-58 -- 21 -- 159 -- 13,00%
1958-59 -- 25 -- 145 -- 17,00%
1959-60 -- 31 -- 155 -- 20,00%
1960-61 -- 38 -- 160 -- 24,00%
1961-62 -- 17 -- 151 -- 11,00%
1962-63 -- 21 -- 155 -- 14,00%
1963-64 -- 20 -- 168 -- 12,00%
1964-65 -- 22 -- 171 -- 13,00%
1965-66 -- 20 -- 184 -- 11,00%
1966-67 -- 15 -- 179 -- 8,00%
1967-68 -- 71 -- 326 -- 22,00%
1968-69 -- 49 -- 329 -- 15,00%
1969-70 -- 53 -- 326 -- 16,00%
1970-71 -- 75 -- 388 -- 19,00%
1971-72 -- 57 -- 382 -- 15,00%
1972-73 -- 81 -- 405 -- 20,00%
1973-74 -- 95 -- 439 -- 22,00%
1974-75 -- 114 -- 503 -- 23,00%
1975-76 -- 87 -- 493 -- 18,00%
1976-77 -- 99 -- 506 -- 20,00%
1977-78 -- 90 -- 511 -- 18,00%
1978-79 -- 69 -- 502 -- 14,00%
1979-80 -- 151 -- 656 -- 23,00%
1980-81 -- 132 -- 641 -- 21,00%
1981-82 -- 116 -- 686 -- 17,00%
1982-83 -- 109 -- 678 -- 16,00%
1983-84 -- 107 -- 693 -- 15,00%
1984-85 -- 114 -- 675 -- 17,00%
1985-86 -- 101 -- 693 -- 15,00%
1986-87 -- 81 -- 688 -- 12,00%
1987-88 -- 135 -- 746 -- 18,00%
1988-89 -- 80 -- 734 -- 11,00%
1989-90 -- 113 -- 730 -- 15,00%
1990-91 -- 115 -- 743 -- 15,00%
1991-92 -- 102 -- 788 -- 13,00%
1992-93 -- 126 -- 789 -- 16,00%
1993-94 -- 148 -- 872 -- 17,00%
1994-95 -- 102 -- 808 -- 13,00%
1995-96 -- 116 -- 857 -- 14,00%
1996-97 -- 106 -- 849 -- 12,00%
1997-98 -- 105 -- 836 -- 13,00%
1998-99 -- 131 -- 902 -- 15,00%
1999-00 -- 136 -- 923 -- 15,00%
2000-01 -- 149 -- 975 -- 15,00%
2001-02 -- 157 -- 966 -- 16,00%

High % "Best Seas" --> Low quality of opposition...

Graph - http://img171.imageshack.us/my.php?image=qualmd3.jpg

PS
you may use Goals or PTS to calculate players 'Best Season', result almost identical

# posted by

Anonymous : September 18, 2006 12:48 AM