The Puck Stops Here

A natural next step to the sabermetrics and hockey problem of adjusting scoring from different eras that springs up after we look at the top 10 goal scoring seasons, assist scoring seasons and point scoring seasons is to look at careers. Who scored the most adjusted goals in their career?

This analysis is done using the formalism from the hockey outsider (Peter Albert), which is a good method that runs into problems because of a lack of an adjustment for quality of opposition and a false normalization of assists from the 1920's when there were few assists in the NHL.

Here are the top 10 adjusted goal scorers of all time:

Top 10 Adjusted Goal Scoring Careers of All Time

Name	Teams	Seasons	Adjusted Goals	Actual Goals
Gordie Howe	Det Hou(WHA) NE(WHA) Har	31	1090	975
Bobby Hull	Chi Win(WHA) Win Har	24	927	913
Wayne Gretzky	Ind(WHA) Edm(WHA) Edm LA StL NYR	21	844	940
Brett Hull	Cgy StL Dal Det Phx	20	783	741
Phil Esposito	Chi Bos NYR	18	702	717
Luc Robitaille	LA Pit NYR Det	19	694	668
Steve Yzerman	Det	22	685	692
Jaromir Jagr	Pit Was NYR	15	675	591
Mark Messier	Cin(WHA) Edm NYR Van	26	672	695
Mike Gartner	Cin(WHA) Was Min NYR Tor Phx	20	669	735

I have updated this list from the one on the hockey outsider website for last season. In order to make this list, one must have played a long career. The shortest career in the top ten adjusted goal scoring careers is that of Jaromir Jagr who has completed 15 NHL seasons - and is still going strong. He moved from 15th place all the way to 8th last season.

At the top of our list we find Gordie Howe, the man who had the longest professional hockey career ever. He played 31 years in the NHL and WHA. Howe scored 944 of his adjusted goals in the NHL. So even without his WHA play he would have finished first on this list. However, the second place position is decided by WHA play. Bobby Hull moves into second with his 7 WHA seasons included. Wayne Gretzky (who played one WHA season himself) is third, but would be second if the WHA years were excluded. This leads to the question of how best to incorporate WHA years when comparing all time stats. That will be the issue I address in a future post.