Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Calder Trophy Leader
In the past, I have endorsed Henrik Lundqvist of the New York Rangers as the leading candidate for the Calder trophy. While Lundqvist continues to play well, it is time to re-assess that endorsement. One other rookie is playing so well that he has moved into the Calder lead. Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals is the second highest goal scorer in the NHL with 32 (behind only Ilya Kovalchuk). Ovechkin's 58 points places him in the top ten scorers in the NHL and he is doing this on a weak Washington team with little help (in fact the second highest scorer on the team Dainius Zubrus has a mere 24 points).
Lundqvist has a .924 saves percentage and a 2.19 goals against average which are very good numbers. He is my pick for Calder runner up.
Sidney Crosby with his 51 points with the Pittsburgh Penguins is currently in a strong third position.
Other strong rookies exist this year including Dion Phaneuf, Marek Svatos and Andrej Meszaros.
Generally, I think the rookie of the year is a player who could have played well in the NHL the season before his rookie season , but for some reason was not in the league. With the lockout there is a two year backlog of such players. I think a strong argument could be made that Ovechkin or Lundqvist or Crosby could have been strong NHLers last year and maybe even before that, had they been given the chance to play in the league.
Lundqvist has a .924 saves percentage and a 2.19 goals against average which are very good numbers. He is my pick for Calder runner up.
Sidney Crosby with his 51 points with the Pittsburgh Penguins is currently in a strong third position.
Other strong rookies exist this year including Dion Phaneuf, Marek Svatos and Andrej Meszaros.
Generally, I think the rookie of the year is a player who could have played well in the NHL the season before his rookie season , but for some reason was not in the league. With the lockout there is a two year backlog of such players. I think a strong argument could be made that Ovechkin or Lundqvist or Crosby could have been strong NHLers last year and maybe even before that, had they been given the chance to play in the league.
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In my mind it comes down to those two guys although it still astonishes me how little Lundqvist gets mentioned. I agree with you that Ovechkin has moved ahead of Lundqvist who I had rated as the top rookie a few weeks ago. What Ovechkin is doing without any real talent around him is pretty amazing. That said, what Lundqvist is doing to turn a horrible Rangers team into a contender is equally amazing. Rookie of the year is a 2 horse race right now with Ovechkin a nose ahead.
# posted by 
: January 18, 2006 11:34 AM
: January 18, 2006 11:34 AM
After Raycroft's Calder walkover win and his subsequent sophomore flameout, they're not giving it to a goalie. And as good as Lundqvist's been, we're all waiting for him to go through that stretch where he slumps. And I don't necessarily think the Rangers are "horrible". There's been talent on that team for years, but they just never pulled their defense together enough to get over the hump. And if Lundqvist falters, look for a lot of those people who are supporting him to toss him aside and throw votes behind Kari Lehtonen. I think Lehtonen is clearly the NHLer with better prospects, and even though missing the first 2 months hurt him, keeping up his current pace should put him in the mix. Maybe not top 3, but he'll get mentioned...especially if Lundqvist hits a rough spot.
Ovechkin is a superstar already. There's no doubt in my mind the Calder is his to lose. If he keeps up his current pace, he finishes with approximately 66 goals and 110 points. And considering that the next leading goal scorer on the Caps is Zubrus who has 11, his numbers are even more impressive. He's got 3 times the number of goals anybody else on his team has. Are you kidding me??? He's doing all this with practically zero talent surrounding him.
If I voted for the Calder today, here's how I rank them...
Ovechkin
Svatos
Lundqvist
Crosby
Phaneuf
Prucha
Meszaros
hoorock (doubleviking.com)
Ovechkin is a superstar already. There's no doubt in my mind the Calder is his to lose. If he keeps up his current pace, he finishes with approximately 66 goals and 110 points. And considering that the next leading goal scorer on the Caps is Zubrus who has 11, his numbers are even more impressive. He's got 3 times the number of goals anybody else on his team has. Are you kidding me??? He's doing all this with practically zero talent surrounding him.
If I voted for the Calder today, here's how I rank them...
Ovechkin
Svatos
Lundqvist
Crosby
Phaneuf
Prucha
Meszaros
hoorock (doubleviking.com)
# posted by : January 18, 2006 5:38 PM
: January 18, 2006 5:38 PM
Hoorock
Andrew Raycroft's success or failure this season should have no impact on Henrik Lundqvist's Calder chances. They are not related.
Also, I am curious as to why you pick Marek Svatos as the Calder runner up. That seems a little bit high.
Andrew Raycroft's success or failure this season should have no impact on Henrik Lundqvist's Calder chances. They are not related.
Also, I am curious as to why you pick Marek Svatos as the Calder runner up. That seems a little bit high.
Svatos' 27 goals have a lot to do with me picking him 2nd. The fact that Crosby has fewer goals isn't the only thing working against him. In recent weeks, his play has been very immature and he's taking a lot of silly penalties. Out of the top 50 goal scorers, Crosby has the worst +/- and the 2nd most penalty minutes. Meanwhile, Svatos is quietly outplaying him and even has 2 hat tricks this year. In reality, they're probably about equal, but Svatos is playing smarter and Crosby is playing more like an 18 year old rookie.
Obviously Raycroft's numbers have an impact on Lundqvist. Considering how good Ovechkin, Svatos, Crosby, and Phaneuf (among others) have been, Lundqvist is going to have to be even better than Raycroft. And because Raycroft has been so bad in his sophomore season, they won't want to overlook a deserving forward who is already a star for another goalie who may flame out quick. And since Lundqvist's competition is all position players and no goalies, of course they have to look at his numbers versus other Calder-winning goalies.
Overall, I'm still thinking Lehtonen will be the top rated rookie goalie by season's end, so this point will be moot.
hoorock
Obviously Raycroft's numbers have an impact on Lundqvist. Considering how good Ovechkin, Svatos, Crosby, and Phaneuf (among others) have been, Lundqvist is going to have to be even better than Raycroft. And because Raycroft has been so bad in his sophomore season, they won't want to overlook a deserving forward who is already a star for another goalie who may flame out quick. And since Lundqvist's competition is all position players and no goalies, of course they have to look at his numbers versus other Calder-winning goalies.
Overall, I'm still thinking Lehtonen will be the top rated rookie goalie by season's end, so this point will be moot.
hoorock
# posted by : January 18, 2006 7:44 PM
: January 18, 2006 7:44 PM
Hoorock
I disagree with most of that.
Crosby 22 G 29 A 51 P 13th in NHL (Naslund/Demitra are some of the players with similar point totals). Top scorer on his team. Second is Palffy who is retiring with 42 points.
Svatos 27 G 14 A 41 P 44th in NHL (H. Sedin/ Cheechoo are some of the players with the same point total). 3rd highest scorer on his team behind Tanguay and Sakic.
I'm not sure I see any logical argument that concludes Svatos has played better.
+/- is largely a team stat. Svatos plays on a playoff team that currently leads their division. Pittsburgh is last in their conference (29th in the NHL). That alone explains their difference in +/-. Of course Crosby has a bad +/- playing in Pittsburgh.
And your other point that somehow Raycroft's success or failure has something to do with Lundqvist's Calder chances is equally wrong. If Lundqvist wins Calder it is because he is the best rookie in the NHL. It doesn't matter what Raycroft does or does not do. They are different people.
I suppose it is possible that Lehtonen ends the season as the top rookie goalie, but it would take a big meltdown from Lundqvist for that to occur along with a big few months from Lehtonen. Right now, Lundqvist looks like a Vezina nominee. Lehtonen has barely played due to injury. He's only appeared in 9 games so far. He's around three months behind Lundqvist right now. If Lundqvist got hurt for three months and Lehtonen played like an all star in that time then they might be equal in Calder chances. More than likely, Lunqvist will continue to play and remain a solid starting goalie. If that happens it is almost impossible for anyone who has played as few as 9 games at this point to catch him by the end of this season - which is past the halfway point.
I disagree with most of that.
Crosby 22 G 29 A 51 P 13th in NHL (Naslund/Demitra are some of the players with similar point totals). Top scorer on his team. Second is Palffy who is retiring with 42 points.
Svatos 27 G 14 A 41 P 44th in NHL (H. Sedin/ Cheechoo are some of the players with the same point total). 3rd highest scorer on his team behind Tanguay and Sakic.
I'm not sure I see any logical argument that concludes Svatos has played better.
+/- is largely a team stat. Svatos plays on a playoff team that currently leads their division. Pittsburgh is last in their conference (29th in the NHL). That alone explains their difference in +/-. Of course Crosby has a bad +/- playing in Pittsburgh.
And your other point that somehow Raycroft's success or failure has something to do with Lundqvist's Calder chances is equally wrong. If Lundqvist wins Calder it is because he is the best rookie in the NHL. It doesn't matter what Raycroft does or does not do. They are different people.
I suppose it is possible that Lehtonen ends the season as the top rookie goalie, but it would take a big meltdown from Lundqvist for that to occur along with a big few months from Lehtonen. Right now, Lundqvist looks like a Vezina nominee. Lehtonen has barely played due to injury. He's only appeared in 9 games so far. He's around three months behind Lundqvist right now. If Lundqvist got hurt for three months and Lehtonen played like an all star in that time then they might be equal in Calder chances. More than likely, Lunqvist will continue to play and remain a solid starting goalie. If that happens it is almost impossible for anyone who has played as few as 9 games at this point to catch him by the end of this season - which is past the halfway point.
"Svatos plays on a playoff team that currently leads their division. Pittsburgh is last in their conference (29th in the NHL.) That alone explains their difference in +/-. Of course Crosby has a bad +/- playing in Pittsburgh."
Now that's a very short sighted argument. Sure the team's performance plays into the +/- rating, but there are plenty of guys on bad teams that have a good rating, and guys on bad teams who are above average. Ziggy Palffy's +5 comes to mind. And he plays on the same team as Crosby. And Ovechkin is only -1 on a team that is just as bad as Pittsburgh. And you didn't even mention his sloppy play and penchant for taking dumb penalties.
I'm not saying Sid isn't worthy of mention in the Calder conversation...of course he is. But, I just happen to think Svatos is outplaying him and playing more mature. And for reference's sake, I have been a longtime Penguins fan and I despise the Avalanche, so there's no bias whatsoever. Trust me. And once again, this is probably a moot point since Ovechkin looks poised to run away with the award.
As for Lundqvist, my point is that in a year where there have been several superb rookies, his numbers are going to have to be better than Raycroft's were. And Raycroft's sophomore slump is obviously going to play into voters' minds come Calder time. It's just human nature. You can say anything you want about it not mattering, but it does. Voters will be sitting there trying to decide between Ovechkin and Lundqvist and a thought is going to creep into their mind like, "Oh man..we're not giving this to a goalie again. Remember what happened to the last guy we gave this to..." Once again, it shouldn't matter, but it does. Just like if Crosby and Ovechkin were virtually equal at the end of the year, Crosby's being Canadian would totally give him the edge over Ovechkin. There's all sorts of little deciding factors that lead to tight decisions, and it all factors in...not just their numbers.
hoorock
Now that's a very short sighted argument. Sure the team's performance plays into the +/- rating, but there are plenty of guys on bad teams that have a good rating, and guys on bad teams who are above average. Ziggy Palffy's +5 comes to mind. And he plays on the same team as Crosby. And Ovechkin is only -1 on a team that is just as bad as Pittsburgh. And you didn't even mention his sloppy play and penchant for taking dumb penalties.
I'm not saying Sid isn't worthy of mention in the Calder conversation...of course he is. But, I just happen to think Svatos is outplaying him and playing more mature. And for reference's sake, I have been a longtime Penguins fan and I despise the Avalanche, so there's no bias whatsoever. Trust me. And once again, this is probably a moot point since Ovechkin looks poised to run away with the award.
As for Lundqvist, my point is that in a year where there have been several superb rookies, his numbers are going to have to be better than Raycroft's were. And Raycroft's sophomore slump is obviously going to play into voters' minds come Calder time. It's just human nature. You can say anything you want about it not mattering, but it does. Voters will be sitting there trying to decide between Ovechkin and Lundqvist and a thought is going to creep into their mind like, "Oh man..we're not giving this to a goalie again. Remember what happened to the last guy we gave this to..." Once again, it shouldn't matter, but it does. Just like if Crosby and Ovechkin were virtually equal at the end of the year, Crosby's being Canadian would totally give him the edge over Ovechkin. There's all sorts of little deciding factors that lead to tight decisions, and it all factors in...not just their numbers.
hoorock
# posted by : January 18, 2006 9:52 PM
: January 18, 2006 9:52 PM
I'm not saying Sid isn't worthy of mention in the Calder conversation...of course he is. But, I just happen to think Svatos is outplaying him and playing more mature. And for reference's sake, I have been a longtime Penguins fan and I despise the Avalanche, so there's no bias whatsoever. Trust me.
When there is a discrepancy between what you tell me and what my eyes tell me, I tend to trust my eyes. And my eyes tell me Crosby has been much better than Svatos.
As for Lundqvist I competely understand your point. Its something like this. In 2003/04 they gave the Calder to some guy who has a first name that begins with the letter "A". Now that guy is having a poor sophomore year so voters feel burned and they will be doubly careful before ever giving a Calder to a guy who has a first name that begins with "A".
Except you chose to make that argument a bit differently picking a random similarility between Raycroft and Lundqvist instead of that random similarity between Raycroft and Ovechkin.
Nevertheless both are horrible arguments.
When there is a discrepancy between what you tell me and what my eyes tell me, I tend to trust my eyes. And my eyes tell me Crosby has been much better than Svatos.
As for Lundqvist I competely understand your point. Its something like this. In 2003/04 they gave the Calder to some guy who has a first name that begins with the letter "A". Now that guy is having a poor sophomore year so voters feel burned and they will be doubly careful before ever giving a Calder to a guy who has a first name that begins with "A".
Except you chose to make that argument a bit differently picking a random similarility between Raycroft and Lundqvist instead of that random similarity between Raycroft and Ovechkin.
Nevertheless both are horrible arguments.
Nevertheless both are horrible arguments.
You know what...I love hockey and I love lively and intelligent debates about my favorite sport. I like when people can carry on intelligent conversations about the numerous debatable issues that are intrinsic to this great sport. And, I actually was enjoying reading your site these past few months.
But, this is the second time we've been in a seemingly lighthearted and intelligent discussion and you've acted like a jerk and gotten very condescending. Just because we have a slightly differing opinion, doesn't mean you have to act like a dick. I surely don't think I did anything to warrant that. Your comments to me and many others here are condescending and completely unnecessary. I was hoping that this would be a good place to have some interesting and thoughtful conversation, but apparantly I am sorely mistaken.
This is the last time I'll be checking your site.
hoorock (doubleviking.com)
You know what...I love hockey and I love lively and intelligent debates about my favorite sport. I like when people can carry on intelligent conversations about the numerous debatable issues that are intrinsic to this great sport. And, I actually was enjoying reading your site these past few months.
But, this is the second time we've been in a seemingly lighthearted and intelligent discussion and you've acted like a jerk and gotten very condescending. Just because we have a slightly differing opinion, doesn't mean you have to act like a dick. I surely don't think I did anything to warrant that. Your comments to me and many others here are condescending and completely unnecessary. I was hoping that this would be a good place to have some interesting and thoughtful conversation, but apparantly I am sorely mistaken.
This is the last time I'll be checking your site.
hoorock (doubleviking.com)
# posted by : January 18, 2006 11:12 PM
: January 18, 2006 11:12 PM
Let's not forget Niittimaki as a goalie candidate for rookie of the year. With Esche injured he has stepped in and started every game for the Flyers and done fairly well and has a 17-6-6 record. He isn't at Lundqvist's level but he is having a very good season and also never really gets mentioned as a Calder candidate.
Svatos is having a very good year but I think you have to put Crosby a bit ahead of him in the rookie race. He plays on a much better team with much better players. That definitely helps him. And yes, Svatos +/- is better than Crosby's but Svatos is the 6th worse on the Avalanche so it is nothing special.
Right now my rookie list would be:
Ovechkin
Lundqvist
Crosby
Phaneuf
Svatos
Meszaros
Prucha
Niittimaki
Jokinen
After those guys there is a large group of players worth considering.
Svatos is having a very good year but I think you have to put Crosby a bit ahead of him in the rookie race. He plays on a much better team with much better players. That definitely helps him. And yes, Svatos +/- is better than Crosby's but Svatos is the 6th worse on the Avalanche so it is nothing special.
Right now my rookie list would be:
Ovechkin
Lundqvist
Crosby
Phaneuf
Svatos
Meszaros
Prucha
Niittimaki
Jokinen
After those guys there is a large group of players worth considering.
# posted by : January 19, 2006 12:19 AM
: January 19, 2006 12:19 AM
As someone who's been watching the Rangers in game in, game out, Lundqvist is not only Calder, I think he's a decent shot at the Hart... not because I think he (or any goalie) would actually get, but because without him, seriously, the Rangers are fucked. Completely. They have the division lead with a third of the season to go, just knocked off a mighty Ottawa team, and this is the team sports prognosticators were falling over themselves to pick somewhere between 14th and 33rd place in the Eastern Conference.
Ovechkin is great, but Lundqvist is backstopping the Rangers to a season most of us faithful simply didn't expect.
Ovechkin is great, but Lundqvist is backstopping the Rangers to a season most of us faithful simply didn't expect.
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