The Puck Stops Here

We can calculate individual goals against averages and we can also calculate individual goals for averages. When a player is on the ice in a 5 on 5 situation and his team scores he gets credited with a goal for (even if he doesn't score or assist on it). This is another sabermetric method to find the best offensive players in the game. The statistic is somewhat team and situation dependent. Good teams will score more often than bad ones and give their players higher goals for averages. Players who play checking roles will likely not score as much as those who play offensive roles, but it is a useful way to look at who is valuable in scoring goals. This statistic is calculated at behindthenet.ca.

Here are the ten best goals for averages (among players who played 50 games last season):

Top 10 Individual Goals For Averages 2007/08

Rank	Player	Team	GFA
1	Dany Heatley	Ott	4.37
2	Jason Spezza	Ott	4.26
3	Paul Stastny	Col	4.15
4	Pavel Datsyuk	Det	4.04
5	Sidney Crosby	Pit	3.92
6	Derek Roy	Buf	3.87
7	Jason Arnott	Nas	3.86
8	Alexander Ovechkin	Was	3.79
9	Henrik Zetterberg	Det	3.77
10	Evgeni Malkin	Pit	3.74

Clearly, offence is less team dependant than defence. More teams are represented on this list than on a defensive list. It only takes one player to escape from his check to score a goal. On defence, all players must responsibly take their checks to prevent a goal. This is why it is harder to study defensive values sabermetrically than offensive ones. Defence is by its nature a team effort, while offence is more individualistic.

Ottawa stars Dany Heatley and Jason Spezza lead the way in GFA. They are followed by Paul Stastny of Colorado, who looks to be on his way to an outstanding career. Next is Detroit's Pavel Datsyuk, who is also the Selke Trophy winner for best defensive forward, as well as one of the top scorers in the game. Sidney Crosby is fifth on this list. Next comes Derek Roy of Buffalo, who is involved in a surprisingly high number of goals (where he does not get a point). He is followed by Jason Arnott of Nashville, who also might be seen as a surprise, but had an excellent year in a market where he was rarely noticed. The NHL's top scorer Alexander Ovechkin comes next. He is followed by a second Detroit player in Henrik Zetterberg. Finally, Evgeni Malkin, the second highest scorer in the league finishes out the list. This is clearly a good group of players.

The worst ten goals for averages (among players with 50 games or more) in 2007/08 are:

Worst 10 Individual Goals For Averages 2007/08

Rank	Player	Team	GFA
1	Ryan Hollweg	NYR	0.42
2	Colton Orr	NYR	0.52
3	Jeremy Reich	Bos	0.76
4	Travis Moen	Ana	0.80
5	Brian Sutherby	Ana	0.84
6	Rodney Pelley	NJ	0.87
7	Dallas Drake	Det	0.97
8	Mark Smith	Cal	0.99
9	Brad Larsen	Atl	1.02
10	Jarred Smithson	Nas	1.04

This list is mostly a list of marginal NHL players. The only player with any real value is Travis Moen who also provides very good defence. Many of these players are played in checking roles on their teams, but it is very hard to have much value when you are involved in as few goals as these players.

At the bottom of the list is the New York Rangers pair of Ryan Hollweg and Colton Orr. I called Colton Orr the worst player in the NHL who gets a regular shift last season. I think the Rangers would improve by not giving these two as much ice time. Jeremy Reich is next. He is barely an NHL talent. Travis Moen is fourth lowest in GFA, but is still a useful player because his GAA is also very low and against tough competition. Brian Sutherby is another Anaheim player on this list, but he had little NHL value last season. Rodney Pelley is another marginal NHL talent. Dallas Drake is another who contributed little last season, though he was a useful player earlier in his career. Mark Smith provided little to the Calgary Flames last season. Brad Larsen is another guy who seems to be playing his way out of the NHL, who is ranked 9th. Finally, Jarred Smithson fills out this list for the Nashville Predators.

It is interesting that no defencemen make either the top or worst 10 GFA lists. This shows that scoring is often initiated by forwards and that defencemen play with far too many forwards to be at either extreme.

Calculating a goals for average (GFA) for players in 5 on 5 situations is a useful way to look at offensive value of a given player. There is less interpretation problem due to teams and situations where a player is used than for his individual goals against average. This shows that offence is far more individualistic than defence is. The players with low GFAs are usually players with little value as NHL players. Looking for players with the lowest GFAs in the league is one of the surest ways to locate players who should not be in the NHL. Of course, there is always an exception to the rule and that is Travis Moen, who also has one of the best GAAs against some of the toughest competition in the league to go with his low GFA.