Thursday, July 31, 2008

Power Play +/-

Yesterday, I wrote about an on/off ice +/- for penalty kills and listed the best and worst players of last season under it. The next logical step is to apply the same system to power plays. This is exactly the same as the even strength on/off ice adjusted +/- except it is restricted to play on the power play. By doing this, we can look at the sabermetric problem of individual power play success. A player's on ice +/- rating (per 60 minutes) is compared to that of his team when he is off the ice. The credit for this idea goes to Gabriel Desjardins of behind the net.

In order to not complicate things, these numbers are only time spent on 6 on 4 power plays and include only players who have 60 minutes or more playing time in the situation. Because of the limited amount of time spent on the power play, the exact order of players is probably dominated by statistical noise (one more or less goal could move a player several spots on any list), but the method is good to separate the good and bad players on the power play. Here are the top 10 such players last season:

Top 10 Adjusted 5 on 4 Power Play +/- Ratings 2007/08
RankPlayerTeamOn Ice +/- Off Ice +/- Adjusted +/-Minutes 5 on 4
1Rostislav OleszFlo9.131.947.18144:29
2Michael NylanderWas7.070.816.26195:12
3Scott NiedermayerAna7.611.426.19181:26
4Ryan GetzlafAna7.561.995.14277:58
5Jere LehtinenDal9.884.334.76151:41
6Jason SpezzaOtt7.982.784.62308:34
7Daniel AlfredssonOtt7.702.754.52280:42
8Ilya KovalchukAtl4.510.004.51425:01
9Dany HeatleyOtt7.763.254.50293:56
10Jarome IginlaCal6.442.084.36335:23

Rostislav Olesz is a bit of a surprise leader. Florida did very well when he played on the power play last season. They would be advised to give him significantly more power play time in the future. Michael Nylander is next. He is a creative passer who excelled when given extra room. Next up are Anaheim Ducks Scott Niedermayer and Ryan Getzlaf (who also does very well in +/- at even strength). Jere Lehtinen is primarily known as a defensive forward, having won the Selke Trophy three times, but he also excelled on the power play. Ottawa Senators Jason Spezza and Daniel Alfredsson are next. Ilya Kovalchuk comes next. The Atlanta Thrasher power play depends on him so much that the team allowed as many shorthanded goals as they scored power play goals when he was not on the ice. Dany Heatley is a third Senator on the list, which is rounded out by Jarome Iginla. This is a very good group of offensive players who excelled on the power play in 2007/08.

On the flip side, here are the 10 worst players in 5 on 4 situations last year (with 60 or more minutes played):

Worst 10 Adjusted 5 on 4 Power Play +/- Ratings 2007/08
RankPlayerTeamOn Ice +/- Off Ice +/- Adjusted +/-Minutes 5 on 4
1Rene BourqueChi-0.865.19-6.0669:26
2Rob NiedermayerAna0.005.71-5.7163:58
3David BoothFlo2.427.71-5.30124:06
4Keith AucoinCar2.997.68-4.6980:11
5Francois BeaucheminAna2.166.66-4.50222:13
6Christian EhrhoffSJ1.765.94-4.18170:56
7Andy McDonaldStL2.036.12-4.09266:30
8John MaddenNJ0.864.90-4.0469:36
9Maxim AfinogenovBuf2.426.39-3.97173:02
10Devin SetoguchiSJ1.235.14-3.9197:14

This group of players is for the most part not known for offensive skills. Their failure on the power play is not too surprising. Rene Bourque leads the power play inept group. His team actually allowed more goals while he was on the ice on a power play than they scored. Rob Niedermayer makes the worst list in second place (while his brother Scott is on the best list). David Booth is next despite putting up a very good +/- at even strength (but in limited playing time). Keith Aucoin is next. He is followed by Francois Beauchemin. Anaheim's power play improved a lot when Scott Niedermayer returned allowing Beauchemin to not receive as much power play time. Christina Ehrhoff comes next. He is followed by Andy McDonald. McDonald's trade to St Louis got him off the Anaheim power play, which is another reason it improved around the time Scott Niedermayer returned. John Madden is the second player on this list that I would have nominated for the Selke. Being a good defensive forward does not include being a top player on the power play. Maxim Afinogenov is next. He had an all around awful season with a bad even strength +/- rating as well. Devin Setoguchi rounds out the list of the worst power play players last season.

On/off ice adjusted +/- ratings on the power play is a good way to rate individual success on the power play. There is significant statistical noise in the rankings because of the lack of time spent on power plays in a season. Nevertheless, the most successful power play players and least successful ones can easily be differentiated from one another.

It was funny to me to see Zubov, ostensibly an offensively-oriented defenseman, leading the "shorthanded +/-" list while Jere Lehtinen, the perennial Selke finalist, is high on the list for "power play +/-."

I guess we should think twice before we pigeonhole players like that.
This set of statistics really illustrates why I think those "normalized" statistic tends select good players on bad teams. In fact, in this case they select good players on the first PP units of teams that have poor second PP units. Players on teams that strongly rely on a single unit and a small set of players will be selected. It's particularly stark in this case because there's a lot of variation in the strength of second PP units -- good players on teams with weak second PP units will be selected over good players on teams with strong second-wave PP units.

Consider this anomaly: there are no players from any of the top five power play teams in the league in your top 10. There are no players from Montreal, Philadelphia, Detroit, Pittsburgh, or Tampa Bay. This is particularly noticeable in the case of Montreal, because they not only had the most PPGF, they were tied for the fewest SHGA in the league -- meaning that they were far and away the best team in the NHL for PP +/- at a whopping +87, with the closest nearest competitor at +78. Yet no Habs on the list, no Flyers, no Red Wings, no Penguins, no Bolts. These are all teams with excellent PPs. Presumably, they have a large number of players who are good on the power play. Why are there no players of any of these teams on your list?

Because those teams were excellent on the power play, and especially, they had very strong second PP units.

Take, for example, Alex Kovalev. I pick him as an example because he led the league in PP points, and he was a focal point of Montreal's first PP unit -- arguably the most effective PP unit in the league. His PP +/- reflects this, with a whopping 9.03.

But he's not listed in your top 10, because Montreal's second unit is so good. His GFOFF +/- was 7.05 -- a number that's better than the best players on most team's first PP units.

That gives him an adjusted +/- of 1.99 -- making him look mediocre by your metric. I don't think one can reasonably argue that Kovalev, or the players on the NHL's most productive PP unit, were mediocre. On the contrary: Montreal's second unit was almost as effective as its first, a big reason of why they led the league on the power play.

What's worse about your metric is that it makes good players on the second PP units of teams with dominant first units look awful. For this I pick Roman Hamrlik -- another Hab, and because I remember mentioning him when James Mirtle brought this statistic up. Hamrlik plays the point on Montreal's second power play unit. He narrowly avoided being included in your bottom 10 -- his "normalized" +/- is -3.71. By your measure he would be an awful power play player.

In reality, his only flaw is that he is not Andrei Markov. His on-ice +/- is 5.86 -- that is an excellent number for a second-unit player, and would put him on the first unit of many teams. Unfortunately, he plays for Montreal so he is normalized against the Habs' dominant first PP unit. That unit is possibly the best in the NHL, which is reflected in Hamrlik's off-ice PP +/-: a whopping 9.71.

In fact, what you're really doing is normalizing Andrei Markov and Roman Hamrlik against each other, since they generally play the same position on the first and second waves, so that when one is on the ice the other is off and vice-versa. Markov's on-ice +/- was 9.14 and is off-ice +/- was 5.81 -- not coincidentally, numbers that are close to the mirror image of Hamrlik's.

So Markov ends up with a normalized rating of 3.33 and Hamrlik with -3.71 -- not quite mirror images, but close. That might tell us Markov is better than Hamrlik on the PP, but it doesn't tell us anything about how they compare with PP players on other teams.

The normalized metrics might tell us how good a player is compared to his team, and particularly compared to other players at the same position, but it's not a good metric for comparisons across teams.
As an addendum -- it's very interesting to sort the 5-on-4 table at by +/- on, and then then by +/- off. I did this with a minimum TOI/60 of 2 minutes.

The top of the +/- on is dominated by Habs -- Streit, Markov, Kovalev, Koivu and Plekanec are all in the top 10, with Andrei Kostitsyn not far down the list. Sort by +/- off and the table is still dominated by Habs -- the top 10 features Hamrlik, Higgins, Plekanec, Koivu, and Kostitsyn. Not only are the top of both lists full of Habs, they are the *same* Habs -- because both of Montreal's PP units were so strong. In fact the majority of Montreal's players who saw any power play time at all are in the top 50 of both lists.

The top 50 or so of *both* lists feature a number of players on teams with strong power plays -- Philadelphia, Detroit, Pittsburgh, Tampa Bay, Florida, etc. And often the same names appear on both lists. Those players are good power play players, but because the rest of their team is also good, the normalization makes them look "average".
The assumption that goes with the off ice normalization is that there is parity throughout the league. There isn't much difference from one team to the next. Team effects may exist, but they can be removed realtively well in this manner. I argue that isnt a bad assumption for overall +/- stats. It is a bit more questionable on power plays and penalty kills.

The best power play last season Montreal scored at 24.1% success and the worst in St Louis scored at 14.1% success. Is that difference too big to fit a parity model? On the penalty kill, San Jose allowed a goal 14.2% of the time to lead the league and Los Angeles did 22.0% of the time to be the worst. But these numbers are not exactly what we should be comparing when we are looking at +/-. We should compare team +/- ratings. Montreal was +87 on the power player, followed by Philadelphia at +76 and Detroit at +74. In the worst group, the NY Islanders were +33, St Louis +34 and Atlanta +42. On the penalty kill, the best are San Jose -37, Dallas -38 and Nashville -42. Worst are Toronto -73, Carolina +71 and a Washington/ Calgary tie at -63. The order of teams is juggled around a bit.

One test of how well the model fits is to look at how many players at the top of the rankings come from good teams. The assumption here is that good teams are good because they have good players (a bit more about that assumption later on).

So good teams should have good players. The top three teams in even strength (not really even strength it includes shorthanded goals scored and allowed) +/- are Detroit +49, Ottawa +28 and Anaheim +22. Given the amount of time teams play at even strength the fact these teams are this close to the zero mark supports the parity model of the league (there is no clear analogy to power play/short handed because there should be an imbalance in scoring - teams should be pluses on the power play and minus on the penalty kill). If we look at the top 10 players in on/off ice adjusted +/- ratings we see that each of Detroit (Datsyuk), Ottawa (Heatley) and Anaheim (Getzlaf) are represented in the top 10, with further Detroit and ottawa players in the top 20. This is consistent with expectation.

Now if we look at the penalty kill list, only Dallas is represented of the top 3 teams. But they are represented with Sergei Zubov who is in the number one position. On the power play list, Montreal, Philadelphia and Detroit are not represented at all. This shows problems if it is good players who make good teams good.

I argue that a lot of what makes a good team good on special teams is coaching. Montreal has had a good power play for a few years and even replaced their point man Sheldon Souray in the process (Souray never showed power play excellence except under the Montreal system). I think the main reason for Montreal's power play success is coaching. I wrote about this once. Were this model correct, one would expect to see Montreal players among the top on and off ice power play +/- ratings. They have a well coached successful unit and (to a degree) players are interchangeable. No one Hab makes their power play run. Which would you credit for their power play success? Alexei Kovalev is the first that jumps to my mind, but I think I select him because he is the closest thing they have to a star more than anything else. Philadelphia is a smilar situation, except that they have not had power play success for as long. 2007/08 was the first good power play in Philly in a few years. They built it by adding players who did not bring power play success from other teams (Briere, Lupul, Timonen). I wrote about this also. Philadelphia also significantly changed their coaching staff and that is probably more significant than the player changes. I think you could easily argue the same about penalty kill success. Its largely a systems related thing that relies mostly on good coaching. If that is the case, the best players may not be on the best teams.

The normalization to off ice performance is the hardest part of this analysis to justify mathematically, the main justification is that it works and in a parity-filled league it should be approximately right. This is more in question in special teams situation than it is in even strength. The question is does the lack of players on the top power play teams (Montreal, Philadelphia) in the top of the individual power play rankings indicate something is wrong - or does it indicate that the success of those teams is strongly systems related and not player driven?

As for the Markov/Hamrlik example, it is true that in limited ice time this should be a problem. The more time spent on power play the more plyers will play and the better things are sampled. However, I would argue that finding Markov to be a good power play player and Hamrlik to be a bad one would be results that appear consistent with my observations last season.

Largely, I limit myself to looking at the players in the extremes with these methods. They are the ones who are most likely to have meaningful reasons (good or bad play) behind their extreme ranking. The numbers are not perfect, but they are good enough to gather some valuable insight.
I won't deny that coaching is a huge factor. I don't think it necessarily follows that player quality is insignificant to a strong power play, and that a good PP can use players interchangeably A team that can swap players and not have a big drop in PP effectiveness can do so because it has a lot of depth, a lot of good PP players, not just because of a good system.

Is Kovalev a successful power play player because of his own abilities, or is he successful because of his teammates and coaching? I would say it would have to be a lot of both. He led the league in power play points and his team had the best power play in the league, so he is a natural choice to consider for evaluating a method to determine who is a good power play player.

The problem with using this metric is that you're not normalizing against the league, you're normalizing against teammates. My point is that Hamrlik is *not* a bad power play player. He's actually very successful for a second unit player. His on-ice +/- compares to many teams' first-unit players. He's just not as good as Andrei Markov, so he looks bad on this metric because he is compared to Markov, who is one of the most successful PP players in the league. In fact, because Hamrlik is a good second-unit player, he also makes Markov look worse on your metric than he is.

Ilya Kovalchuk is on your list primarily due to the ineptitude of his second-wave teammates. His on-ice +/- is unremarkable (it's below anyone who plays on the PP for any of the top 5 power play teams). What this tells us is that he is a vital part of the Atlanta PP -- he *is* the Atlanta power play, really. Is he one of the ten best PP players in the league? That's possible, but it's very debatable. But he is a good PP player on a mediocre PP team, so he gets selected.

This is the issue with your metric, but it's particularly visible for power plays because of the way teams structure their PPs: typically you have two waves, one with the best offensive players, and the second with the next-best players. The parity between teams in the league actually matters very little for this particular situation.

Teams with a lot of offensive depth (like Montreal, Detroit, and Philadelphia) will have two strong units, which will result in a very strong power play overall -- but *everyone* will end up with middling "normalized" +/- because the teammates they are compared against are stronger. Both units are strong but the difference between them is not that great. Teams that are inept on the PP also end up with middling normalized +/- because everyone is about equally as unproductive. Teams with some PP scoring but without a lot of offensive depth (Ottawa and Calgary come to mind) will see their best players get a boost because their first PP waves are good, but their second PP waves are much weaker.

Then you end up with the situation you have -- the strongest PP teams are very unlikely to have any players high in the chart because their quality teammates are dragging their ratings down. The teams without any good players on the PP will also have very few players in the bottom of the chart, because their teammates are just as bad.

So your rankings get dominated by *middling* PP teams -- and a specific type of middling team, too, teams with a strong first unit and weak second unit rather than teams with two middling units. Your top ten lists features 7 players from the teams ranked 10th to 20th, and in the bottom ten, 5 have rankings 10th to 20th. The top of the chart is filled with good players on teams noted for top-heaviness, for having star players on teams that lack offensive depth -- Calgary, Ottawa, and Atlanta. For a metric measuring PP effectiveness, wouldn't you expect to see the top 10 filled with strong PP teams, and the bottom 10 dominated by weak PP teams?

The metric can be useful to determine who in a team is getting PP time and shouldn't, but it's not very suitable to compare between teams. You can measure the relative importance of a given player to his team, and that's useful to know, but you can't use it as an absolute measure to compare between teams.

There is truth to your argument. I look at it like this. To compare players between teams, we have several things to take into account. One is the strength of the team. The model held here is that with the exception of a couple players each team is roughly the same (its basically arguing for near parity - complete parity would be arguing that we don't need to adjust for teams at all). If we compare the on and off ice numbers we get closer to "reality" than by not doing it. I think it shows that we are not there yet in the fact that the best teams do not have players who appear in the top of the rankings, but I am not certain how wrong it is. It seems in a team like Montreal or Philadelphia everyone who plays on the power play puts up pretty good numbers while they are on the ice (and they put up better nbumbers than they did in other cities in the past). That implies that the power play system plays a big part in the success, possibly moreso than the individual players.

I would argue that Roman Hamrlik is not a particularly good power play player despite having pretty solid on ice numbers. Everyone in Montreal does that and his numbers are on the lower end.

I think that this stat does not necessarily give you the best power play or short handed or ewven strength players in the league, but it does give you a good group of players for its leaders and a poor group for its worst rankings. It has some value. It has more value than the mere raw numbers. There is more than can be done to fix its flaws (though exactly what has to be done is a bit of an open question). It shows why hockey sabermetric calculations are difficult. We are trying to assign individual value for what is inherently a team game. The context of the team is always important and hard to remove.
I definitely don't want to imply that the statistic has no value. Just that what it really does mean must be considered. It's not an accurate measure of overall power play ability in all cases although it will identify players who are good (or bad) on the power play.

I think that there is a large element of system and team play to power play results, but individual players matter, too. Replace Evgeni Malkin by Rob Niedermeyer and I don't think he'll do nearly as well, despite the Penguins' system. A system is a necessity to a strong PP, but the players need strong passing and puck skills to execute it. That's why Hamrlik is used on the Montreal PP and why he is successful, though not as much as Markov -- he does have good PP skills. Having a second wave with players like Hamrlik and a strong system is one reason why Montreal dominated the league on the power play, but teams like Philly and Detroit also have very strong second units with negative normalized +/- that could serve as first units on many teams.

If you replaced Malkin by Iginla, say, on the Pittsburgh power play, I'm doubtful Pittsburgh's power play would get much better, if at all. Iggy's on-ice +/- would probably go up a fair bit -- but Iggy's normalized +/- would go down, because his off-ice +/- would be much higher. The Penguins' system and offensive depth would help Iginla's counting stats, and if anything would make him better, not worse -- but his metric would go down.

Is Iginla better on the PP than Malkin? Maybe, maybe not. Is he considerably better, as per the sizable gap in normalized +/-? I doubt it. Iginla just plays on a team with a weaker second unit.

That's why I think the statistic should come with a sizable caveat. As you mention, it will identify good power play players, but not necessarily the best ones.
I dont think I can argue that point. By the same line of reasoning, nobody in their right mind would replace Evgeni Malkin (who doesn't appear on any of these top +/- lists) with David Perron (who is number one at even strength). That would be a ridiculous move.

That isn't the point of this analysis (at least not yet - we can dream). It isn't possible to come up with meaningful definitive rankings of players based on this kind of analysis. It reveals good and bad performances that sometimes are not otherwise so obvious. That is its value right now.
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