The Puck Stops Here

One only needs to look at the top scorers in the NHL to see that some of the most dominant players this season are Russians. If we look at the top point scorers in the NHL we see Russians in first (Alexander Ovechkin of the Washington Capitals), second (Evgeni Malkin of the Pittsburgh Penguins) and fourth place (Pavel Datsyuk of the Detroit Red Wings). Only Jarome Iginla of the Calgary Flames breaks up a one-two-three Russian leader board. Similarly in goals scored, Ovechkin is first, Ilya Kovalchuk of the Atlanta Thrashers is second and Malkin is fourth. Again it is a third place Iginla breaking up a Russian top three. This Russian dominance is contrary to the fact that the number of Russian players in the NHL is in decline.

The decline in Russian NHL players is due to the lack of a player transfer deal with Russia and the increasing amounts of money being paid to the Russian Elite League players, which prompt some Russian talent to stay home instead of joining the foreign NHL. In fact, there are plans to start a potential new league in Europe with hopes of rivaling the NHL. Though it is reasonable to be skeptical of that goal, a new league would draw talent away from the NHL. So far this season, there have been thirty Russian players who have played one or more NHL games. That is down from 57 prior to the lockout. Talent is already being drawn away from the NHL.

The skeptics will argue that the elite Russian talent still comes to the NHL. That is clearly true when one looks at the scoring race. However, some proven NHLers are having good seasons in the Russian Elite League right now and would be able to contribute to any NHL team, were they in the NHL. A quick look through the Russian Elite League shows there are teams with former NHLers Aleksey Morozov, Alexander Perezhogin, Oleg Saprykin, Alexei Yashin and Maxim Sushinsky all leading them in scoring. There are other teams led by players such a Jan Marek and Sergei Mozyakin, who most think could be good NHL players if they had the chance. This is a loss in the overall NHL talent pool.

Right now, the very best Russian players are coming to the NHL because that is where they can make the best money but will that always be so? It is not too farfetched to imagine that if a new European league gets off the ground they may offer a huge contract to one of the proven Russian superstars in the NHL (much like the way the WHA signed Bobby Hull). Given the lack of a transfer deal, any of Ovechkin, Malkin, Kovalchuk or Datsyuk could jump to the new league despite their current NHL contracts. The money to stay in Russia is getting continually better, in part because it is largely oil money (and oil is a hot world commodity) and because the US dollar is dropping relative to other currencies worldwide, so the difference between Russian and NHL salaries is closing.

There is also the problems of entry level contracts and two way contracts (with re-entry waivers) that limit how much a player can make when he first comes to North America (in many cases he would make more money staying in Russia at the start of a career). This means that unless a player is an instant star when he gets to North America, there is a good chance he will return to Russia. That makes it very hard to keep Russian talent in the NHL and some of those players lost might have gone on to be NHL stars if given a chance. There are many players who have developed into NHL stars in the past who were not ready when they first hit the NHL and these players would have been lost if they were Russians under the current system.

It is quite extraordinary that out of a talent pool of only 30 NHL players, three of the top four point scorers and three of the top four goal scorers are Russians. I think this is likely a bit of a fluke season for Russians. If Russia truly was this good and developing players, they would be a perennial champion in international hockey tournaments (they are not reigning champs in any of the Olympics, World Championships or World Junior Championships). This is a high point that has come because some Russian players have all had very good seasons at the same time and some other players who could be top scorers (such as Sidney Crosby, Henrik Zetterberg, Joe Thornton, Vincent LeCavalier etc.) have not managed to keep up with them. I imagine next year we will see less Russian top scorers (if only because it would be hard to see more of them) and it is quite possible that we will soon be in a position where some potential top scorers have stayed in Russia instead of coming to the NHL. Enjoy your Russian NHL superstars today, there are reasons to imagine they may not last as dominant NHL players and if they don't it will be a big loss to the NHL.