Wednesday, February 28, 2007

Quick Look At The Trade Deadline

Using the idea that the trade deadline is not just one day, but consists of several days of season ending deals, this year dating back to the Brad Stuart trade, here is a quick analysis of the deals:

Team that made the biggest shortterm gain - New York Islanders. They added the best player who changed teams who is clearly healthy in Ryan Smyth. Todd Bertuzzi and Peter Forsberg may be better players if healthy, but there are strong reasons to believe neither are healthy. To do this, they didn't give up anybody on their roster.

Team that has the biggest short term drop - St Louis Blues. They moved Keith Tkachuk and Bill Guerin bringing only Ville Nieminen and Glen Metropolit to their roster. They also added Brad Boyes for Dennis Wideman in a lateral move. They will likely be rewarded with extra draft picks that turn into NHL players, b ut for now, the loss of Guerin and Tkachuk make the blues a worse team.

Team that made the biggest longterm gain - Edmonton Oilers. They gave up a rental Ryan Smyth and they pick up three first round draft picks from the Islanders. Two in Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra have already been used. The 2007 one should be near the middle of the first round. This should help the Oilers build some future talent.

Team that had the biggest longterm drop - New York Islanders. This is a team that will likely barely qualify for the playoffs. They added a rental Ryan Smyth for the cost of three first round picks (Nilsson, O'Marra and 2007). That's far too much even if they were a serious contender.

NOTE: I am currently away with limited internet access. I will likely not be able to continue my usual posting frequency until mid-March. I may write a few posts between then and now, but the frequency (and length) my be greatly reduced.

Comments:
"They gave up a rental Ryan Smyth and they pick up three first round draft picks from the Islanders. Two in Robert Nilsson and Ryan O'Marra have already been used."

Ok, that makes no sense. Going by that logic the Senators made a great deal trading a second round pick for a first round pick. Umm, no. The problem is, the first round pick has already been used on Oleg Saprykin.

Once the player gets drafted it is no longer a first round pick. There is no longer any flexibility in who you can pick up. And in the case of Nilsson and O'Marra, noone really projects them to be first line players or even quality second line players.

That said, if the Oilers were certain they couldn't re-sign Smyth then maybe it was an OK deal but the deal but you can't call it 3 first round picks, especially the Nilsson part since he is already 22 years old wiht 53 NHL games experience.
 
O'Marra and Nilsson are prospects who look like they could be decent NHLers. Last year, Nilsson put up 20 points in 53 games (which is not bad for a rookie). He has yet to progress to a solid NHL player, but he has the potential. O'Marra is more likely to be a solid NHL player than that.

The point is that if you give away all your first round picks in recent and future history for a rental - when you are not a legfit contender to win the Stanley Cup, you are on a path to nowhere. You will be mediocre at best in the future.

Hockeysfuture projects O'Marra to be a quality second line center here and Robert Nilsson as the most talented Swede to be drafted since the Sedins here. So you are WRONG claiming nobody picks them to be first line or quality second line players. Hockeysfuture (a very good source for this kind of stuff) projects both as having that ability.
 
According to HockeysFuture both of them are rated a 7.0 which equates to second line forward. That is their upside potential. Additionally Nilsson gets a C in liklihood to reach that level which isn't that great. O'Marra is rated a B which is a bit more optimistic. The point is, neither of these players are prime prospects or players that you build your team around like you would build your team around Ryan Smyth. That doesn't make it a bad trade just don't expect star players from those two guys.

As for the Islanders, I wouldn't count them out in the weak eastern conference. DiPietro gives them very solid goaltending. With the addition of Smyth they now have five 20+ goal scorers with Trent Hunter at 19 (Buffalo only has 6 now with Zubrus). And that doesn't count Yashin who would likely be there too if he didn't get injured. And they have a decent, and deep, defence with Witt, Hill, Martinek, Poti, Campoli, Bergeron, Meyer and Gervais. And they have excellent coaching. I would not want to face them in the playoffs.
 
David, you changed your argument. You said that NOBODY thinks O'Marra or Nilsson are going to be second line players. I showed you that hockey's future says they can both be second liners. Presumably, the first rounder in 2007 can also become a 2nd liner (if not more). Should even one of the three players going to Edmonton become a 2nd liner for several years it is far more valuable than the 19 games plus playoffs Ryan Smyth will likely give the Islanders. The Islanders move undoes several years of drafting to rent Smyth for a few weeks.
 
"So you are WRONG claiming nobody picks them to be first line or quality second line players."

Wow, you are being arrogant. "ur wron im rite lolz", which is made more ironic because you were actually wrong with your "Smyth for three first-round picks" argument, as the inimitable Mr. Johnson has described.
 
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