The Puck Stops Here

While discussing the Penguins threats to move that they are making to try to get a new arena, the topic of potential new NHL franchises (specifically an NHL return to Winnipeg) came up. I think that this idea, though popular to some Canadian fans, is highly unlikely.

In an NHL, with even minor levels of revenue sharing, owners have no desire to add new markets that will potentially get their dollars through revenue sharing. Why would New York or Toronto want to add Winnipeg when they will likely have to pay revenue sharing dollars to Winnipeg? Any market that gets added to the NHL will be one that is appears almost certain to be well above the average revenue levels that currently exist in the NHL. I see two possible teams that could satisfy this requirement in North America. One would be a Houston team (with appropriate ownership and venue). Houston is the fourth largest city in the US - and gaining on Chicago for third. This is a large market that remains untapped by the NHL. The second is Southern Ontario. Toronto and area is hockey mad. If another team was put into Toronto, Mississauga or possibly Hamilton this team would likely be a huge success. Of course the Toronto Maple Leafs would have to okay a reduction in their territorial rights - which seems unlikely. In the case of Hamilton, the Buffalo Sabres would also have to okay a reduction in their territorial rights. This makes these possibilities remote, despite their revenue potential.

The NHL is not in a strong position to expand right now. They are still reeling from the lockout. Despite propaganda, NHL revenues are down from the pre-lockout numbers. In fact, the lockout was in part caused because of failing southern expansion under Gary Bettman. Expansion as a whole is unlikely.

Could franchises re-locate? Afterall Pittsburgh is threatening this. The likelihood of this actually happening is low. This is in part because Pittsburgh is a viable market that currently lacks a good arena. They have had historic success including two Stanley Cup victories. Gary Bettman marketed the lockout in part claiming that it was necessary to ensure that existing markets would not lose their NHL teams. If Pittsburgh then loses their NHL team a couple years after the lockout, it blows a hole in the idea that the lockout succeeded in accomplishing this goal (which of course was never truly a goal of the lockout). It would be bad publicity for the NHL if teams started moving.

In a case of a seriously jeopardized market that does not have a fanbase or finances, the NHL may be forced to move to contract that team, but Pittsburgh is not such a case. They have a fan base. The problem right now is that ownership is trying to extort a new arena from local government.

Eventually, I think the future of the NHL includes expansion to Europe. It would be the first major sports league in two continents. Hockey is huge in many big European markets. This could be successfully done. Of course travel would be an issue, but that could be addressed by severely limiting inter-contintental travel. It would be a bold move for the NHL to move into Europe, but in the meantime, they are still trying to shore up the markets they already have. It is unlikely that we will see expansions or relocations for several years.