Sunday, July 17, 2005

Goals Created

Continuing my series of posts on sabermetrics and hockey, we will now address the topic of goals created. This post is a bit of a footnote to my hockey player rating method post because that rating method uses goals created in its framework. The idea of goals created is presented by Daryl Shilling in his hockey project.

The idea behind goals created is to try to estimate how many goals a given player created for his team. They are estimated as follows:

Goals Created (GC) = (G * 0.5) + (A * (2 – (LWA/LWG)))

Where LWA is league wide assists and LWG is league wide goals in the season in question. This formula is an approximation. There is no deep basis to show that (for example) a goal scorer is responsible for the creation of exactly half of the goals he scores.

Let's look at some results of this formulation.

The 10 best careers ranked in terms of goals created are:

1 Wayne Gretzky 887
2 Gordie Howe 850
3 Mark Messier 631
4 Phil Esposito 599
5 Steve Yzerman 596
6 Ron Francis 596
7 Mario Lemieux 581
8 Marcel Dionne 578
9 Brett Hull 555
10 Stan Mikita 552

This is certainly a list of ten very good offensive players.

I've seen that formula floating around, but I'm still not sure about the rationale behind the (2-(LgA/LgG)) part. So here's a theoretical one I've been thinking about:
We know that roughly 75% of all goals have 2 assists, about 20% of goals have 1 assist, and about 5% are unassisted. On unassisted goals, the goal scorer should get 100% of the credit, because he did all the work. On 1-assist goals, the scorer and assister should split the credit 50-50; on any goal, I figure 4 things have to happen: the shooter gets open, the passer sees the open shooter, the passer makes the correct pass, and the shooter scores... it's 50-50 because half of those acts belong to the shooter and half to the scorer on a 1-assist goal. On 2-assist goals I credit the scorer with 50%, the first assist with 30%, and the 2nd assist with 20%. The rationale being that on 2-assist goals, you can tack on another act to the original 4: the 2nd assister making his pass. He doesn't get a "vision" credit, because I've found that the 1st assist requires far more vision than a second assist, which can be outlet passes, etc. So, let's compute the values for each type of point:
*Goals: .05*(1) + .95*(.5) = .525
(full credit on unassisteds, plus half credit on all assisted goals)
*1st Assists: .2*(.5) + .75*(.3) = .325
(half credit for assists on 1-assist goals, plus 3/10 credit on the first assist of a 2-assist goal)
*2nd Assists: .75*(.2) = .15
(1/5 credit on all 2nd assists)
So now we have as our formula:

GC = .525*(Goals) + .325*(1st Assists) + .15*(2nd Assists)

...but the NHL doesn't differentiate between 1st and 2nd assists in its records. So we have to lump all assists together, then assume the league ration for all players. Using data from 2000-01, I found that of the 11504 total assists, about 56% were 1st assists and 44% were 2nd assists. Those figures seem as good as any, so let's plug them in the equation:

GC = .525*(Goals) + .325*(.56*(Assists)) + .15*(.44*(Assists))

Simplifying, we finally get:

GC = .525*(Goals) + .248*(Assists)

Whew! I think that this makes more sense than The Hockey Project's formula, even though basic assumptions still must be made for either formula to work.
blogs in here looking forward to often visit your blog - Learn how to turn $500 into $5,000 in a month!

[url=]Make Money Online[/url] - The Secret Reveled with Binary Option

Binary Options is the way to [url=]make money[/url] securely online
Great beat ! I would like to apprentice while you amend your website,
how could i subscribe for a blog web site? The account aided me a acceptable deal.
I had been a little bit acquainted of this your broadcast offered
bright clear idea

Here is my web blog :: make money fast online for free
Good day! I could have sworn I've been to this site before but after checking through some of the post I realized it's new to me.
Anyways, I'm definitely glad I found it and I'll be bookmarking and checking back frequently!

My homepage: legal geld verdienen
This is a really good tip especially to those fresh to the blogosphere.
Short but very precise info… Many thanks for sharing this one.
A must read article!

Feel free to surf to my weblog; binary options trading systems
Just want to say your article is as astonishing. The clearness in your
put up is simply spectacular and i can suppose you're a professional on this subject. Well along with your permission let me to snatch your RSS feed to stay up to date with approaching post. Thank you one million and please carry on the enjoyable work.

Look at my weblog binary options
Very nice post. I simply stumbled upon your weblog and wished to mention that I
have truly enjoyed surfing around your weblog posts.

After all I will be subscribing in your rss feed and I hope you write again soon!

my web page; binary options india
I don't know whether it's just me or if everybody else experiencing issues with your
website. It appears like some of the written text within
your posts are running off the screen. Can someone else please provide
feedback and let me know if this is happening to them too?
This may be a problem with my internet browser because I've had this happen previously. Kudos

my web-site; graduate certificates
Тhis text is pгicelesѕ. When can I find out

my wеblog :: books on steroids
My webpage :: isteroids
Ϻу famіlу always sау that I аm wasting my tіme hеre at web, hoωever I know І am
gettіng knowledgе eѵeryday by reading such pleasant аrticleѕ or revieωs.

Also ѵisit my sіtе: healthy long distance
Ι have rеad ѕome excellеnt stuff heге.
Definitely woгth bookmаrκing for гeviѕiting.
I wonder how so much attempt you set to create the sort of excеllent informаtivе web site.

My web-sitе - Paleo diet can help Women lose weight easily
What's up to all, how is everything, I think every one is getting more from this web site, and your views are pleasant designed for new visitors.

Here is my website high school dating advice for guys
Everything is very open with a clear clarification of the challenges.

It was truly informative. Your website is very useful.

Many thanks for sharing!

Here is my website senuke xcr
Undeniably believe that which you stated. Your favorite reason appeared to be
on the internet the easiest thing to be aware of. I say to you, I definitely get annoyed while people think
about worries that they just don't know about. You managed to hit the nail upon the top as well as defined out the whole thing without having side effect , people could take a signal. Will likely be back to get more. Thanks

Also visit my weblog trade binary options
I will immediately seize your rss as I can't find your email subscription link or newsletter service. Do you've any?

Kindly let me realize in order that I may just subscribe.

Check out my website - Skip Navigation
Girls seem to be more totally free to wear cross-gender clothes and also to act
outdoors their established gender function. Think about how the media portrays women and men.
It seems males are both the stereotypical macho man or even the bumbling idiot.

Men are significantly less free to display their feelings.
Girls could be proficient, clever, and athletic.

Also visit my website - female mind mastery by Marcus london
I unfriended every single solitary 1 of my FB buddies, family included.
They just posted dumb shit. My only FB buddy is my husband.
I now love FB. I only get news feed from pages that share my

Feel free to surf to my page facebook statuses attract women
I'm NOT SUGGESTING Females WOULD Have to GO TOPLESS, JUST If they Select TO AND At the least Possess the Proper TO.
DO YOU Think THAT Men Still Control WOMENS BODIES WITH Guidelines THAT Had been Produced Lengthy Before Ladies COULD VOTE?
ALICE: THEN WHY IN Locations LIKE RIO ARE THERE NOT Far more Situations OF RAPE. TOPLESS IS Lawful THERE AND Has been For a lot of A long time.

my site give in to a woman's whims
VPNinja is really a great way to obtain on Facebook, Youtube, Hulu, etc from
China. http//

Also visit my web-site online dating tips for women profile
Has anyone tried BriteSmile? It is a little bit far
more expensive but you get instant results.....Only 60 minutes and it's painless!!! What a difference BriteSmile does

Feel free to visit my web site dental pro 7 reviews
There are crucial dialogues concerning this content heгe at this webρаge, I have read аll thаt, so noω me alsο cоmmenting here.

Also visіt mу ωebpage; cheap secured loan
Really like your share from the Potting Drop

My blog; cheap arrow sheds
That's my favorite one also. It is just perfect and looks fairly big too.

Also visit my web page order arrow sheds
Thankz for information ,,verry usefull for me

Also visit my site; build muscle and not gain fat
I've read some outstanding stuff right here. Absolutely price bookmarking for revisiting. I wonder how a great deal attempt you set to generate the sort of fantastic informative website.

Feel free to surf to my web blog - six pack shortcuts pdf
Cool tutorial i didnt know how to use the desaturate feature and ive allways just adjusted the contrast, your way is considerably far better thanks.

Look into my website ... 20 teeth whitening gel opalescence
Losing fat can truly be easy in case you know what to perform.
Subsequent these weight reduction suggestions can support
in reducing excess weight. We just require to become sincere with our weight
reduction efforts and stick to ideas effectively and

my web-site; weight loss pills gnc store
I don't know much about it but it sounds like a great idea to add a equation to get a better result to track something.
I'm not in a position to view this web site correctly on chrome I feel there is a problem

Feel free to visit my web-site - having trouble getting pregnant the third time
Omega-3 from Flax just isn't the greatest absorbed form. You want a higher quality fish oil. Based on a survey, 44 out of 47 bottles of flax seed oil sold in stores are rancid (oxidized)!

Also visit my web-site - natural cooking club old
Don't go high-priced for any reduction. two buck chuck is good.

Here is my blog post: precision nutrition lean eating program for women
I'm extremely impressed with your writing skills as well as with the layout on your blog. Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself? Anyway keep up the excellent quality writing, it's rare to see a great blog like this one today.

Check out my web page; squirting orgasm mastery review
In the event we're able to consult a number of countless avid gamers Online casino jackpot grand will end up a Online casino jackpot grand game regarding errors to the some other participants, certainly not a person.
This is a very good article,I couldnt find to much other information on this article, I will be back to look at some other posts that you have another time perbedaan kista dan miom discovered your blog checking aol for a related subject matter and came to this. infeksi pada miss V so it was nice to discover this one. tips Miss V sehat
They are now so popular. I am now bookmarked to this site. I am happy to be one of their community.
V- Travelled |

Best of Travel |

Numa Travels |

Traveler Services |

Banshit Travels |

Explore UK Travel |

Alsu Travel |

Dubai Travel |

Couch Travels |

Travel Talking |

Most of the time I don’t make comments on websites, but I'd like to say that this article really forced me to do so. Really nice post!
Most of the time I don’t make comments on websites, but I'd like to say that this article really forced me to do so. Really nice post!
HBC Business |

Law Firm Profits |

Greate Business Forum |

Business Jet People |

Sage Business Coach |

Aged Investment |

Headline Profits |

Market Online Profits |

Keep Your Profit |

Sneaky Health |

Your blog is very popular! This paper content rich and colorful, adopt unique writing thinking.I think they will like to see this article. | | | | | | | | | |

I´m considering some minor changes regarding the scale, but I´ve not made a decision yet.
dubaitravelshop |

couchtravels |

hwisetravel |

cmdenttravel |

thatgirltravel |

travel-kyouto |

traveltoward |

timetraveltoday |

yonsetravel |

jomaritravel |

Post a Comment

<< Home

This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?