Tuesday, April 19, 2005

Raising the Draft Age?

The most recent trial balloon that Bob McKenzie floats for the NHL can be found here. He says that the NHL wants to raise the draft age by nine months. I think this is a contingency plan. I think that in the event there is no draft this year due to the labor dispute, the next draft may have a raised eligibility age. This would still be a Sidney Crosby draft, but it would be one year later.

There are benefits to the NHL to this move. The older players get drafted, the easier it is to project their abilities into the future. This help to reduce costly mistakes when high draft choices do not pan out. This is a move that many in the NHL would like, however under normal circumstances it is almost impossible to make this change without there being a draft with significantly less talent then normal.

There will still be the occassional player who comes along at age 18 who is good enough for the NHL. Recently, Ilya Kovalchuk and Marian Gaborik have been famous examples of this. Historically, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux are high profile examples. No draft age can fully prevent this. Once in a while there will be a phenomenal young talent that is the exception to all the rules. The problem of how to deal with these players may be solved by the lockout. If there is no NHL next year, it is almost certain that Sidney Crosby will go play in Europe. If he is successful doing that other players may follow him if they reach the current NHL draft age but are not yet eligible by new NHL rules. Given the expected entry level salary restrictions that would accompany a new CBA, it may lead to such players staying in Europe and not making the journey to the NHL. This possibility increases significantly for those players who are already European. Its not the increased draft age that is directly to blame if such a loss occurs to the NHL talent base, its the restrictions places on players in the new CBA, but an increased draft age might contribute in an indirect fashion.

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