The Puck Stops Here

In sabremetrics and hockey one problem is to adjust scoring between different eras. The hockey outsider has a method that does this as well as any. It is not the only method. Similar methods are used by Darryl Shilling and Total Hockey.

All methods try to normalize away differences in games played, ice time and scoring rates in different eras of hockey. None are successful in removing the effect of quality of opposition, which is a significant factor that remains in the data.

One problem is to figure out the ten best single seasons in terms of adjusted goal scoring. Accoring to the hockey outsider method these are:

Top 10 Adjusted Goal Scoring Seasons of All Time

Name	Team	Year	Games Played	Adjusted Goals	Actual Goals
Brett Hull	StL	1990/91	78	82	86
Phil Esposito	Bos	1970/71	78	77	76
Mario Lemieux	Pit	1988/89	76	75	85
Wayne Gretzky	Edm	1983/84	74	73	87
Wayne Gretzky	Edm	1981/82	80	72	92
Mario Lemieux	Pit	1995/96	70	71	69
Babe Dye	Tor	1924/25	29	71	38
Pavel Bure	Fla	2000/2001	82	69	59
Pavel Bure	Fla	1999/2000	74	68	58
Phil Esposito	Bos	1971/72	76	67	66

Only six different people appear in this table. Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Pavel Bure and Phil Esposito appear twice each. According to this statistic, Brett Hull had the best goal scoring year ever. The only other player appearing in this list is Babe Dye. Nobody in the original six era makes this top ten goal scoring list. Seven of the ten years occured within 3 years of an expansion year (the exceptions are Brett Hull, Mario Lemieux in 1989 and Wayne Gretzky in 1984). This shows the effect of decreased calibre of opposition. In a couple future articles, I will look deeply into why these results were produced and if any flaws can be fixed.